Tuesday Morning Thoughts – Lets Analyze

It’s a new week and that means there should be new hope around the UNT football team.  I know some fans are pushing the panic button, but I believe we have to wait till we play SMU before we push it.

1QB competition has been reopen. Not sure I totally agree with this idea. I also believe that the QB competition hindered the offense on Saturday night. I’m a full believer that if your preparing a new QB that he needs as many reps as he can get with the first team in order to establish a rhythm. You saw the effects on Saturday night. The offense was in no rhythm and it looked atrocious. Pick your guy and stick with him. Give him all the coaching and reps in order to get him prepared. Josh Greer was not prepared for what unfolded Saturday night. Now by opening up the competition your opening up yourself to the same thing that happened on Saturday. How will reps be split? Is this still a 2 man competition? Or will all 4 be given a fair shot? Just saying I hope this ends well, but I have my concerns. For all the Derek Thompson haters – ” Do you miss me now”


2. Could we just stop the Dajon can be our hero song? In case you missed it Coach Mac said on his radio show that he didn’t even think about putting in the RS FR against Texas. His reasoning is that Dajon is not ready and has missed practices. The coaches like his talent otherwise they would have dismissed the young man already. UNT coaches and fans are hoping the light clicks on for Dajon. I’m saying dont count on it.


3. My CUSA Power Poll. 

1. Marshall

2. UTSA
3. Western Kentucky
4. MTSU
5. Rice
6. LA Tech
7. UNT
8. UTEP
9. ODU
10. UAB
11. FAU
12. Southern Miss
13. FIU
Here is the Underdog Dynasty – Power Rankings

4. If you thought UNT’s offense was bad, well our next week opponent SMU’s wasnt much better. The Mustangs only managed to gain 67 total yards.

5. UNT’s avg distance to go on 3rd down was 7.4 yards. That needs to be more like 4 with a young QB. It reflected as UNT was only able to convert 3 of 15. The 3 times they did convert the yards to go were 1,1, and 2. Let that sink in.

6. Lets go back and look at what I thought were our keys for achieving victory vs. UT last Saturday.

Game Plan for Victory

OFFENSE (1 out of 10)

Limit mistakes and missed assignments                                                                                                                                   No not even close there were blown assignments all over the place. Plus tons of miss reads by the QBs, drop passes,     missed running lanes. It was just U-G-L-Y

Have a run to pass ratio of  at least 60% to 40%                                                                                                                     Hit this one, although it was a leaning a little too much towards the run. UNT’s run pass ratio was 72% run 28% pass.

Hit at least 46 rushing attempt                                                                                                                                                Nope only got 43.

Average 5 yards per 1st down play                                                                                                                                             Not even close 2.86

Average 6 yards per play through the game                                                                                                                            Not even close 1.5 YPP.

Get close to 180 yards passing and rushing                                                                                                                             15 Yards passing, 79 yards rushing. Just stinky

Convert over 40% of 3rd downs                                                                                                                                                     No 20%

Ease Josh Greer into the game with easy throws                                                                                                              Nope. Coach Canales needs to do a much better job with this aspect this week.

Make Texas read and react rather than let them play downhill and fast                                                               Texas was very aggressive all game long and UNT never really challenged them. UNT was never able to slow them down or put UT on its heels.

Score over 24 points                                                                                                                                                                    No

DEFENSE (5 out of 10)

Force Texas to have a run to pass ratio of 42% to 58%                                                                                                   Run 46% Pass 54%

Force Texas into a passing down at least 65% of the time on 3rd downs                                                               Yes! The UNT D was able to force Texas to be in a 3&5 or longer 87% of the time. That’s a pretty remarkable stat.

Limit Texas to under 150 yards rushing                                                                                                                             Close, but not quite. UT had 164 yards on the ground.

Limit Texas to under 250 yards passing                                                                                                                             Yes.  190 yards passing

Limit Texas to under 5 yards per play                                                                                                                                  Yes. Texas had 4.74 YPP

Limit Texas to under 40% 3rd down conversation rate                                                                                                 Yes. 27%

Force 2 Texas turnovers                                                                                                                                                              Yes. 2 TO’s

Force David Ash to beat you over the top                                                                                                                            Ash never really had to or tried to throw it deep.

Don’t let the OL get engaged with their blocks, beat them off the snap and penetrate                                      For the most part the DL did a pretty good job. On those long runs you could see where the UNT DL got walled off which lead to a nice hole for the UT back to run through.

Limit Texas to under 21 points                                                                                                                                               No. I’ll say that they gave up 24 points when Texas actually had to drive the ball more than 50 yards against them.


 

 7. My MVP’s for the UT game were:

Offense – Reggie Pegram

Defense – Kenny Buyers

Special Teams – Blake Macek


 

8. Vegas has the early line at -3.5 in UNT’s favor over SMU. That basically is just accounting for home field advantage. It will be interesting to see what the over/under ends up being.


9.  Dan McCarney after a loss is 11-6 and 12-5 at home. Those are reasons to hope right there folks. If there is one thing I’ve learned about Coach McCarney is that his teams are generally really well prepared. When they play games that were just bad their next week they came out and really played well.


 

10. Bold Prediction of the Week – Josh Greer will be the most improved QB in the country. His QB efficiency will go from a -12.5 to 84.4.