THE BREAKDOWN: SOUTHERN MISS. GOLDEN EAGLES

North Texas Mean Green

vs.

Southern Miss. Golden Eagles

Date: October 18th, 2014

Time: 6:00 pm CT

Location: Denton, TX

Line: UNT -9

Weather: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Game Notes

North Texas

Southern Miss.

CUSA

Match-ups

Five Factors

Southern Miss. Scouting Report

Offensive Overview:

The Southern Miss offense is led by sophomore QB Nick Mullens. Mullens is not the same baby face QB who was making his 1st start against UNT last year. He is experienced and talented. I would even venture out to say that he is more talented than the QB UNT faced last week. Mullens for the most part is a pretty accurate passer and has a strong arm. He sometimes has the issue of staring down his WRs. His WR’s haven’t helped him with their drop issues. Mullens does have a few big play WR’s that UNT has to worry about. The first guy is WR Michael Thomas who leads the Golden Eagles in receiving yards an receiving TDs. Thomas is a speedy WR who does his biggest damage on 1st down where he has racked up 114 yards and 2 TDs. Besides Thomas I expect Casey Martin and Markese Triplett to have good games. The Southern Miss passing attack is not a down the field attack like UNT saw from UAB so that is the good news. The Golden Eagles on avg. 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Instead Southern Miss likes to work the short passing game and let their WR’s do work in open space. Mullens get the ball out quickly and accurately enough to where this could be a problem for UNT as they have struggled against the pass.

In the running game expect to see a good does of RB George Payne who is a big bruising back. Payne is not a speed back, but does have good vision and cutting ability. He works well behind the zone blocking scheme that USM likes to employ. Thats the same blocking scheme that gave UNT so many problems against Indiana. I would not say that USM has a great OL, but they are decent and big enough to shove UNT around. Besides Payne UNT will have to defend against Ito Smith and Jalen Richard. All three of these back are capable receivers out of the backfield.

USM philosophy is much like what you may have seen from West Virginia or Oklahoma St. They will be in spread formations for all of the game. Working solely out of the pistol and gun sets. USM likes to use motion to get player moving before the snap. Expect to see lots of RB’s and WRs moving out toward the flats to draw the defense out of the middle of the field. Then USM will run one of their speedy WRs across the middle for an easy completion. Its an offense that should be able to score and move the ball vs. UNT. North Texas will need to get constant pressure on Mullens if they want to have a chance to win.

Defensive Overview:

Southern Miss runs a 3-4 scheme which is anchored up front by Adam Williams and Rakeen Nunex-Roches. These two guys could cause big problems with their penetrating ability. When they aren’t penetrating they are keeping the OL off MLB Brian Anderson who leads the team in tackles with 51. The Golden Eagle defense is not a great unit and UNT should be able to do some damage against them. Teams that have beaten USM have had their way with this unit. You name through air or ground it usually is ending up in a good play for the Golden Eagles opponent. This is a game where UNT needs to focus heavily on attacking the Golden Eagles on the ground and set up the passing game. UNT needs to put it’s QB in favorable situations whoever that may be.

Offenses are attacking the Southern Miss defense with a 59% to 41% run to pass ratio. Even with that ratio favoring the run heavily opposing offenses have been able to account for 50% of their yards through the air.

Special Teams Overview:

The Golden Eagles special teams unit is not quite what UNT faced last week. Its a unit that I expect to yield big plays to UNT. I would not be surprised to see a big kick off return or punt return. As far as the USM return units they are decent. Casey Martin is averaging 10.8 yards per punt return and Ito Smith is averaging 22.8 yards per kick return.

Southern Miss. Players to Watch:

QB#9 Nick Mullens– 142-244, 8 TDs, 6 INTs, 267 yards per game passing, 132 yards rushing

WR#88 Michael Thomas–21 catches for 294 yards, 3TDs,

BAN #45 Dasman Mccullum– 31 tackles, 3.5 Sacks, 7 TFL

DT #97 Rakeem Nunez-roches– 31 tackles, 1 Sacks, 7 TFL

North Texas Players to Watch:

RB #22 Antoinne Jimmerson – 60 carries,334 yards, 3 TDs, 4 catches 55 yards

TE #18 Marcus Smith – 7 catches for 111 yards, 3 TDs

DE #42 Cahd Polk– 16 tackles, 4.5TFL, 4.5 Sacks

Game Plan for Victory

OFFENSE

+ 1 in Turnover battle
71% Completion Rate,
240 Yards Passing
240 Yards Rushing
Less that 30 Passes
Over 40 Rushes
Average 6.5 Yards per Play
Average 5 Yards per Play on 1st down
Convert over 50% of 3rd downs
Score over 40 points

DEFENSE

Force UAB into a 3&7 or longer 70% of the time
Limit USM to under 70 yards rushing
Limit USM to under 280 yards passing
Limit USM to under 5 yards per play and under 5 yards per play on 1st down
Limit USM to under 30% 3rd down conversation rate
Force 2 USM turnovers
Sack the QB 5 Times
Limit USM to under 18 1st downs
Limit USM to 21 points and under

Predictions

Adam (2-4) – North Texas by 2 TDs

Greg (4-2) – USM 38 North Texas 31

TEAMRANKINGS – North Texas 33 USM 23

numberFire – North Texas 31 USM 17

Bleacher Report – North Texas 34 USM 24

Sports Network – North Texas 28 USM 21

Sports Chat Place – North Texas

Brett Vito – North Texas 27 USM 24

GMG.com