THE BREAKDOWN: North Texas Mean Green vs. Nicholls St. Colonels

 

North Texas Mean Green

vs. 

Nicholls St. Colonels

 

Date: September 20th, 2014

Time: 2:30 pm CT

Location: Denton, TX

Line: None

TV: American Sports Network

Weather: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Stats

O Starters

ST Starters

 

Game Notes

North Texas

Nicholls

CUSA


 

What They’re Saying

Adam – North Texas 55 Nicholls St 10

Greg – North Texas 38 Nicholls St 9

Bret Vito – North Texas 42 Nicholls St 10

College Football News – North Texas 51 Nicholls St 3

Bleacher Report –  North Texas 35 Nicholls St 17

GMG.com


 

Match-Ups

D Match

O Match

ST Match


Five Factors

Last week UNT was beat in every category which led to a huge blow out loss. Just for reference here is a look at the areas where LT was better than UNT last week.

Stat % of 2013 games Win% Avg. scoring margin
1 to 1.5 yards YPP 17.10% 86.20% 13.2
0.3 to 0.4 PPP 11.50% 98.90% 26.8
10-15 yards 17.80% 86.70% 19.9
More opportunities than opponent, better scoring average than opponent 26.90% 98.40% 26.8
+1 Turnovers 38.00% 64.50% 8.1

 

As you can see when you are that bad in those areas, chances are its going to be a blow out and it was. I warned last week in this part of the BREAKDOWN that:

Capture

They did stay close to status quo or LT even increased the advantage. This week the Five Factors say that UNT should win by double digits and so do most people eyes.

Five Factors


 

Scouting Report

 

Nicholls St.

Offensive Overview:

It will be interesting to see what type of offense the Colonels roll out vs. UNT. Their Head Coach Charlie Stubbs resigned and he was the one calling their plays. I wouldn’t expect their offense to be much different than previous games, but we may see a few more wrinkles. The Colonels offense reminds me a lot UTSA’s offense in that they like to do a lot of pre-snap shifts and motions. The focus of their offense is their running game. They are led by a very athletic QB in Kalen Henderson. He is more than capable of escaping the rush and burning the UNT defense. I expect to see them run the zone reads out of their pistol sets. They have a pretty big back in Michael Henry who is a down hill runner and a capable receiver out of the backfield.  The best chance for the Colonels to stay in this game is with Henderson completing passes and scrambling around. They should not be able to line up and run against UNT. They will be able to complete passes, its just a matter of if they can turn those catches into big plays after the catch.

Defensive Overview:

Nicholls St runs a 3-4 defense. Their front 3 guys are not a big a group averaging only 270, which is small for just a 3 man front. DE Cole Frazier is their best pass rusher. Most of their tackles come from their LB unit which is headlined by MLB Ronnie Walker. Besides Walker look for Davin Bowie and Kameryon Brown to making plays. When their DL is able to keep the OL occupied this group of LB’s is athletic enough to make plays. The Colonels secondary is a unit that has not been tested much (56 pass attempts), and that is because everybody runs on them. The Colonels are giving up and average of 8 yards per carry. UNT should be able to out physical this defense and have its way too.

Special Teams Overview:

Not a great special teams unit. The Colonels FG kicker Francisco Condado is 2-3 on the year in FGs and 3-4 in PATs.  In kick and punt coverage the Colonels are decent. They had one bad game against Arkansas where they gave up a 63 yards punt return. As a return unit they havent done much. KR/PR Kevin Canty who transferred in from Colorado is averaging 1.3 yards on his punt returns and 19.7 on his kick returns.

Players to Watch:

QB #15 Kalen Henderson – 388 yards passing, 117 yards rushing ( He has lost 94 on sacks so his recorded total is 23 yds), 1 passing TD

WR #3 Darryl Watson – 9 catches, 113 yards receiving, 1 TD

MLB #54 Ronnie Walker – 27 tackles, 1 TFL

 

 

North Texas

Offensive Overview:

UNT’s offense has been as stale as a cracker that’s been sitting in open air since 1942. The meager 3.6  yards per play ranks them around 123 in the country. It is down nearly 2 yards from last year. UNT’s coaches have chosen to turn the offense over to the mobile exciting QB in hopes of creating some explosiveness and sparks. That young QB would be Dajon Williams. Coach McCarney has been quoted as saying that Dajon is the most talented QB that the Mean Green have. All the fans who have stuck around the past 2 games have gotten a chance to see what Dajon could offer. Dajon offers mobility, arm strength, and accuracy. He will give the UNT offense a chance to challenge defenses vertically which is something this offense desperately needs. I don’t expect to a see much different design of plays for him. Almost everything he has run in games this year has been plays that he excelled at in high school. I expect to see plenty of zone and zone read plays out of the gun and pistol sets. I expect Coach Canales to get Dajon moving out of the pocket with sprint out easy passes to the right. I also expect to see plenty of down field throws. Dajon throws a beautiful deep ball with nice touch. Combine that with the rushing attack that UNT has and it SHOULD be a deadly combination.

Defensive Overview:

UNT’s defense was shredded last week. The LT passing game was too much for the Mean Green to handle. This week they will look to correct the mistakes and hopefully get playing time for a lot of the young guys. Nicholls St. has the most athletic QB UNT has faced this year. He will challenge the DL to contain him, which is something that UNT has struggled at in the past. Nicholls struggles with blitz pick-up and the pass rush all together. Nicholls has given up 16 sacks already this year. I expect UNT to add to that total. Chad Polk and Jarrian Roberts should have big games.

Special Teams Overview:

UNT’s return units seemed primed to break a big one in the game. Returner Carlos Harris is dying to make a big play. He has been limited as a WR due to QB issues. The return game has been the only chance for a big play for Harris. Coming off a great performance against SMU the coverage unit was average. They missed too many tackles allowing LT to set up good field position. Blake Macek is on track to have another really good year as he has already knocked 6 punts inside the 20. UNT also features a really good true FR K in Trevor Moore who 5-5 on FGs.

Players to Watch:

QB #6 Dajon Williams – Makes 1st career start

WR #4 Darvin Kidsy – 6 catches for 54 yards

DE #30 Jarrian Roberts – 7 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 FR, 1 TD

Scout Dashboard

Scout Dashboard 2

 


 

 Game Plan for Victory

This game is more about what I want to see UNT do than what they need to do to win. I fully expect them to win, but this game is about how they win and how they look. More importantly its about solving the QB rubrics cube.

OFFENSE

  1. Control the line of scrimmage
  2. Complete passes down the field
  3. Limit mistakes
  4. Hit at least 30 passing attempts
  5. Average 5 yards per 1st down play
  6. Average 6 yards per play through the game
  7. Get close to 200 yards passing
  8. Get close to 200 yards rushing
  9. Convert over 50% of 3rd downs
  10. Score over 50 points

DEFENSE

  1. Force Nicholls into a 3&7 or longer 80% of the time
  2. Limit Nicholls  to under 50 yards rushing
  3. Limit Nicholls to under 180 yards passing
  4. Limit Nicholls to under 3 yards per play and under 3 yards per play on 1st down
  5. Limit Nicholls to under 30% 3rd down conversation rate
  6. Force 3 Nicholls turnovers
  7. Sack the QB 5 Times
  8. Limit the run after catch yardage
  9. Dont let the QB scramble convert 3rd downs
  10. Limit Nicholls to 10 points and under