The Break Down: Southern Miss

Game Information

Time: October 3, 2015 6:00 pm CT

Location: M.M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, Miss

Line: Southern Miss -16.5

TV: Fox College Sports

Radio: KHYI 95.3 FM KNTU 88.1 FM KGAF 1580 AM

Weather: Partly sunny, with a high near 74. North wind 5 to 10 mph.


Team Information

Southern Miss

North Texas


 

North Texas
 
Southern Miss
National Rank
Category
National Rank
108
Scoring Offense
40
118
Scoring Defense
108
74
Rushing Offense
95
100
Rushing Defense
114
87
Passing Offense
11
94
Passing Defense
111
92
Total Offense
19
110
Total Defense
118
95
Yards Per Play
19
99
OPP Yards Per Play
102
110
Points Per Play
45
110
OPP Points Per Play
106
45
3rd Conversion
75
127
Opp 3rd Conversion
80
72
QB Sacked %
82
13
Def Sack %
87
118
TO Margin
56
Play Call Percentages
North Texas Offense
Southern Miss Defense
Run %
Down
Run %
59%

1st Down
62%

43%

2nd Down
49%

34%

3rd Down
40%

North Texas Offense
Southern Miss Defense
Pass %
Down
Pass %
41%

1st Down
38%

57%

2nd Down
51%

66%

3rd Down
60%

North Texas Defense
Southern Miss Offense
Run %
Down
Run %
74%

1st Down
57%

54%

2nd Down
40%

51%

3rd Down
34%

North Texas Defense
Southern Miss Offense
Pass %
Down
Pass %
26%

1st Down
43%

46%

2nd Down
60%
49%

3rd Down
66%


Yards Per Play
North Texas Offense
Southern Miss Defense
Average
Down
Average
5.5
1st Down
6.7
3.8
2nd Down
6.6
5.8
3rd Down
5.3
North Texas Offense
Southern Miss Defense
Run
Down
Run
5.3
1st Down
6.5
4.3
2nd Down
5.5
2.8
3rd Down
1.9
North Texas Offense
Southern Miss Defense
Pass
Down
Pass
5.9
1st Down
7
3.5
2nd Down
7.7
7.4
3rd Down
7.6
North Texas Defense
Southern Miss Offense
Average
Down
Average
5.5
1st Down
7.9
7.7
2nd Down
6.6
7.5
3rd Down
5.9
North Texas Defense
Southern Miss Offense
Run
Down
Run
4.3
1st Down
6.1
5.9
2nd Down
4.7
5.0
3rd Down
0.5
North Texas Defense
Southern Miss Offense
Pass
Down
Pass
8.9
1st Down
10.3
9.9
2nd Down
7.9
10.2
3rd Down
8.7
QB Rating By Down
North Texas Offense
Southern Miss Defense
Down
114.48
1st Down
125.33
60.82
2nd Down
147.46
113.38
3rd Down
154.86
North Texas Defense
Southern Miss Offense
Down
162.86
1st Down
147.99
187.74
2nd Down
145
209.33
3rd Down
179.33
Inside the Matchups
NORTH TEXAS PASS DEFENSE
VS.
SOUTHERN MISS PASS OFFENSE
Edge
Symbol 2
Why
If you give Nick Mullens time he will pick you apart. The JR QB has really grown up since getting his first start against North Texas as a FR. He has plenty of weapons surrounding him and should have a big day. Casey Martin is Mullens favorite target and the leading WR for USM. Martin has 25 receptions on the year. Two other big time playmakers in the Golden Eagles passing game are WR Mike Thomas and RB Ito Smith. Thomas had 76 yards receiving against NT last year. The North Texas secondary has been struggling the past two weeks. The Mean Green need someone to help Chad Davis out who has been NT’s best coverage man. Ashton Preston looked like a freshman last week with a few missed assignments. Preston will be targeted a lot this week when he on the field.
NORTH TEXAS RUN DEFENSE
VS.
SOUTHERN MISS RUN OFFENSE
Edge
Symbol 2
Why
Southern Miss is another team that features the zone blocking scheme that North Texas struggles with. Jalen Richard & Ito Smith are both dynamic backs that will have good days against North Texas. Smith had 95 yards rushing last year against NT.
NORTH TEXAS DEFENSIVE LINE
VS.
SOUTHERN MISS OFFENSIVE LINE
Edge
Symbol 2
Why
Coach Mac said that Southern Miss is very improved on the OL and he is right. They rotate 8 or 9 guys throughout the game. North Texas will have their hands full trying to stop the run game and trying to find any way to pressure Mullens. North Texas is looking for some guys to step up on the DL. J. Roberts has been playing very well and Roderick Young has also play well. Outside of those two there hasn’t been a whole lot of production from the DL.
NORTH TEXAS PASS OFFENSE
VS.
SOUTHERN MISS PASS DEFENSE
Symbol 2
Edge
Why
North Texas fans will probably call me crazy for giving NT the edge here. Southern Miss is not great at defending the pass. McNulty should be able to find some open guys. Big plays are there for the taking. One of McNulty's best games was last year against USM. McNulty is coming off a bad game, so he is due to rebound with a solid performance.
NORTH TEXAS RUN OFFENSE
VS.
SOUTHERN MISS RUN DEFENSE
Symbol 2
Edge
Why
Southern Miss is really struggling to stop the run right now. North Texas is coming off a pretty good performance against a stingy run defense. Jeffery Wilson, Ivery, and Jimmerson will be too much to handle.
NORTH TEXAS OFFENSIVE LINE
VS.
SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSIVE LINE
Edge
Symbol 2
Why
I thought the North Texas OL did a good job against Iowa last week. It will be interesting to see who get the majority of the playing time at LT this week. Coach Mac also said that Southern Miss is improved in the DL play. I gave Southern Miss the edge here because North Texas has struggled with teams that play with a guy over the center.
NORTH TEXAS SPECIAL TEAMS
VS.
SOUTHERN MISS SPECIAL TEAMS
Edge
Symbol 2
Why
Outside of Eric Keena I've been pretty disappointed with the North Texas special teams. I'm still waiting on Darvin Kidsy to make a play. Trevor Moore has missed a few kicks. The coverage units have also been sloppy.
Player Ratings
North Texas
Southern Miss
Player/Overall Rating
Position
Player/Overall Rating
Andrew McNulty - 69
QB vs QB
Nick Mullens - 80
Jeffery Wilison - 78
RB vs RB
Jalen Richard - 72
Carlos Harris - 85
WR vs CB
Kalan Reed - 73
Chris Loving - 74
TE vs Spur LB
Sherrod Ruff - 72
Chris Davis - 77
CB vs WR
Mike Thomas - 76
Zac Whitfield - 75
CB vs WR
Casey Martin - 74

 

GAME PLAN FOR VICTORY 

How Southern Miss will Win

Southern Miss is trying to take a big step on Saturday. This is a game they should absolutely dominate. North Texas is usually an un-prepared road team and is struggling in all the areas that Southern Miss is excelling at. That being said Southern Miss still has to prove they are as good as I think they can be. They will win this game if they focus on what they do well and dont overlook North Texas. Give Mullens time to pick apart the defense and sprinkle in the run game when needed. On defense they just need to force North Texas to throw it deep. Take away Chris Loving and Marcus Smith underneath and force McNulty to go to his 2nd and 3rd read. If they do that they will end up with a lot sacks and ints.

How North Texas will Win

North Texas will win if they are able to establish Wilson and ride him to the victory. North Texas must dominate T.O.P and keep the defense off the field. Wilson is the key to doing that. Carlos Harris needs to have a big game like last year. He is the only target that McNulty trusts, and the only guy he can consistently hit. The defense will need to find ways to pressure Mullens. He is not immune from mistakes and will stare down a WR now and again. North Texas must give him multiple looks and avoid letting him just stand in there and pick the Mean Green apart. Finally the special teams has to make 2 or 3 big plays to help set the offense.