On Losing To UTSA, And Preparing for UAB

and a smidge of NBA trade talk

There are many ways to lose a basketball game. I have seen many. The can’t-buy-one games, the went-cold-late, the didn’t-have-the-legs, the out-muscled, the out-talented, and so on and so forth. This was the kind where the trend of bad starts and inconsistent guard play caught up to them. Friend of the blog, Greg G has been writing about the guard play for a couple of weeks. It was covered up by some nice comebacks, good shooting in important scenarios, and some bad opponents.

North Texas played just about the worst half I’ve seen them play in a long time. Missed shots are one thing, but here was a passivity, and a confusion. There were mishandled passes, weird cuts, and a lack of effort.

When followers of this squad complain about the guard play, and when this site complains about a simplistic plan of attack (see the UTSA preview where I said we do too much posting up and asking guys to make things happen) it is for fear of this kind of result. No basketball team is perfect, but they can hide their weaknesses with superior strengths. The good teams can make you “play left-handed.” Put even more simply, they force you to win with your weaknesses.

Part of the fun of college basketball teams is that every program has many weaknesses. The nature of hoop with a squad of young players who haven’t played that often together is that if plan A isn’t working, there rarely is much of a plan B. “Adjustments” can be made, and are often demanded by fans, but the game is only 40-minutes long. Few, if any, teams have any game-changers on the bench beyond their normal 8-9 guys. If a couple are having trouble then that’s it. You are stuck. You can try some motivation — a little yelling, a little coaching, or whatever. There is only so much to do.

When people say the NBA is better, they are right. The average level of talent is much higher, the average level of game intelligence is higher, and the average level of basketball experience is just ridiculously high. The average 5-year pro would look like CP3 or LeBron James-level of basketball genius playing next to some of these dudes out here.

I write all this to do some level-setting. There is so much to work on for a college program and so little time. You have to make choices in a scarce environment. It starts with recruiting. You aiming for experience and known-quantity ? Well you are probably losing out on top-end talent with high variance. Going potential? Well you are likely sacrificing game-intelligence and time-and-score situational stuff. Do you have enough athleticism? You try not to compromise but not everyone is super-skilled AND 6’8” 225lbs and can jump out the gym. You are making some choices. High skill but undersized? Maybe that means those long, twitchy full-court pressing teams are going to give you some trouble.

North Texas’ Plan and What Happened vs UTSA

Ross Hodge and Grant McCasland have their well-thought out plan. They believe in defense, coachability, and valuing each possession. The tradeoffs have been that — at least at the CUSA/AAC level — you have a reliance on some guys that are slightly undersized, and athletes that are slightly under-skilled. It has worked wonders. Tylor Perry could shoot, but would sometimes get pressured into turnovers when trapped in the half court. The bigs NT got were full of effort, but sometimes get exposed when asked to have touch. More athletic teams have bothered the skill guys, and the simplistic offense plan has meant there have been some single-points-of-failure moments — if the one guy is off it makes the whole thing impossible.

There were a lot of reasons why NT lost to UTSA, but the most glaring reasons were that they couldn’t score in the first half. Just the 13 points, including only 2 in the final 10-minutes of the first half. Turnovers, wide open misses, miscommunication and passivity.

The second half NT played more like we thought they could and would. They were +10 overall, and +5 in each “quarter” of play. Of course there was also the final couple of plays where a bucket changes the entire game. NT tried a lob (I didn’t hate it) but it was knocked away at the last second. Remember, we don’t like one-or-two possession games because they are luck. Even a good team is lucky to shoot 50% in the game, and so getting a chance to win or lose based on one possession is a coin-flip. Good teams have things wrapped up early.

They used the entire margin for error in the first half, and then some. They closed the game mid-second half and by then just about everything needed to be perfect. Pushing the ball and lobbing it up for a dunker is not a bad thing — Hodge coaches this actually — but UTSA’s guy made a play. The losing actions happened in the first half, folks. Not at the end.

What Does This Mean For UAB?

Did you know Jossell shot 6/9 from three vs UAB? In the eight games since then, he has made just four out of twenty-seven. That’s 4-of-27. That’s 14%. He’s been in a funk and is losing his aggression. Jonathan Massie is something of a turnover-machine, but he’s an attacking presence. He didn’t get to the line once vs UTSA, turned the ball over three times, and only managed a bucket while only grabbing three rebounds.

A good Massie line looks something like 2/3 from two, 1/2 from three, and 3/3 from the line. He’ll add 5-7 rebounds, have two turnovers and a steal. That’s a hustle-guy line that shows he’s aggressive, but not reckless.

Hodge has to find a way to unlock Jossell. He’s crucial to take pressure off of Atin Wright and Jasper Floyd. Rondell Walker is only going to get you the classic three-and-defense points and he’s only 3/11 in conference play from distance. It puts a premium on the other guys and with one struggling you see it’s easy for defenses to lock in. Pressure Atin Wright and Jasper Floyd and you have shut down a good portion of the NT attack. Brenan Lorient is good, but he’s still adding to his total offensive repertoire. He has that pull-up shot, the fadeaway 18-footer, and the pump-fake in the post. He can’t get to those all the time, and that’s not a full offense. The rest is just quick stuff in the post or hustle points.

Again, some of fixing that is just finding the range. Basketball is rhythm sport, and sometimes you get in a funk. If some of those wide open looks go in vs UTSA in the first, and it’s a little bit of a different game. You can’t have another slow start vs UAB, and so I wonder if Ross Hodge switches things up to get Brenan Lorient in the starting line up to get more punch early.

A Smidge of Bracket Talk

North Texas dropping a game to UTSA killed a lot of the momentum nationally for the hope of an at-large bid. Bouncing back vs UAB would do a lot for team morale, fan morale, and let the rest of the Hoops Knowers feel comfortable that it was a fluke. It’s bad for the brackets but it is good as a potential wake-up call. The slow-starts to this point have thus far been erased by big second-halves. Having it actually reflect on the scoreboard maybe is the impetus for a real change by the staff to address it, or the right thing to get the squad out of the first-half funk.

Finally, a note on trades

Luka Doncic was traded. Yours Truly is not a Mavericks fan (Go Spurs Go) but I cannot express how stupid I thought this trade was. There have been any number of pieces written about the trade — all of them expressing basically the same thoughts. I thought the piece that best captured my thoughts was the one from D Magazine.

To know Dallas is to understand that Nowitzki was not beloved for his championship ring nearly as much as for his embrace of a city that was always trying to measure up: as his unspoken, unwavering reassurance that this place was enough.

In this over-optimized world, we are not putting enough value on the intangibles. Why do people hate the transfer portal? We are losing our connections. Why does everyone hate this trade? Because competing with our guy is different than with Just Any Guy. Sure, it’s all a little bit of flimsy rationale, but it is a part of the charm that makes it special. And special makes all the difference.

In any case, that is why this post-gamer/preview is a little late.

GMG