NT MBB vs UTSA
North Texas at home vs a good offense, poor defense
North Texas is on a winning streak — six straight with UTSA at home, followed a quick trip down to Birmingham for a huge game vs the Blazers. This is the kind of moment that requires good coaching, good team dynamics, discipline, and all the rest. If they pull it off right, it looks seamless and even unimpressive. Do not be fooled, however. This is a tricky spot. The Roadrunners are not good, but like any team full of scholarship hoopers, they can win a basketball game in Denton. If Ross Hodge and his team look forward to Birmingham in the slightest, it would be easy to fall apart in this game.
That said, UTSA is not a team that has historically troubled the NT program. In the last ten matchups, NT is 7-3 — stretching back to 2019. Two of those losses were away, and last year’s terrible slip up — 64-62 — happened after NT blew an eleven-point first half lead.
The Basics
Location: The Super Pit | Denton, Texas (10,500) | 5pm CT | ESPN+
Matchup Info:
UNT form: WWWWW
UTSA form: WLLWL
Rankings:
Kenpom: UNT 52 UTSA 226
EvanMiya: UNT 62 UTSA 229
Spread: UNT -15.5
Basic Stats:
Advanced Stats:
https://kenpom.com/gameprep.php?g=3664
About UTSA
The gist of this squad is that they like to shoot the three, but don’t really like to defend. If they can get steals, or run off rebounds, they will push the pace and shoot in transition. Millender, Spears, and Monsanto all have range and will let it fly on the touch or off the bounce. Monsanto’s three-point rate is something like 87%. They have good size all around the team, and solid athleticism but they don’t really put it all together. The offensive possessions are mostly your-turn, my-turn with some occasional sets to get a guy coming off a curl to fire a three. All the shooting means they run hot and cold. Evan Miya has them on .44 “kill shots” per game, which is the number of 10+ point runs. They allow about .66 of the same. That is to say, they are streaky. North Texas by contrast is at .72 for, and .22 against. That smells right, doesn’t it? North Texas is good for a nice run but doesn’t give up 10+ point runs. All in all, UTSA has a solid offense but a very awful defense.
Some Things To Look For
Brenan Lorient is good. He’s responsible for 118 points by sports-reference’s estimations. He leads the team in conference win-shares. He’s a good rebounder, and is shooting .644 in True Shooting. His PER is 36. He’s balling out.
I don’t like to look at numbers too often throughout a season. When I do, I like to check it against my impression of the team. This helps me get a sense of my own ability to analyze the game. In my head, I thought Brenan Lorient was impressive, that Jasper Floyd was doing a great job of running the team, and that Atin Wright was shooting lights out.
Roughly, that’s what we see. Floyd’s assist rate is super high (24%), Wright is shooting well, and is second in points-responsible for, and Lorient is all over the box score. Some things that I didn’t notice too well were that Massie is a good rebounder. I think I have been blinded a bit by his turnovers, which tracks as he’s at 20.6 TOV%. He’s been loose with the ball too often. Contrast that with Sissoko, who is at 7.4 TOV%. In his role, he shouldn’t be turning the ball over. It is quick posts, quick finishes, and being decisive with the ball. Sissoko is right at what you would expect for a physical presence inside: high shooting percentage, about 17-20% rebounding percentage and a few blocks.
I would like to see North Texas’s offense get easier shots from sets. Too often (imho) they dump it into a guy and let him work a post up. Floyd, Lorient, Sissoko are all effective at this action, but Wichita State’s length was bothering them. I know it is nitpicking when discussing the league’s most efficient offense, but it doesn’t mean things cannot get better. UTSA is not a great defense, and some effort plays will be enough to take care of business. Being crisp with our offense against a bad team helps when playing a good team, however, as you are practiced at making the right plays already.
Enjoy the game folks. GMG