NT MBB vs Rice Preview
It's time to dominate
North Texas and Memphis are the only top-100 KenPom squads in the American Conference. Memphis already survived their battle with UNT, and so the rest of the league play is trying to stay unblemished. For North Texas, there are no more giants to slay and while some analysts may want to count the Mean Green as something of a big fish, the fact is that the advanced numbers, rankings, and eye test suggest that North Texas is maybe a bubble team at best. Whatever. While it is fun to dive deep into bracket-ology, it is also an exercise in nihilism. The game can be fun even if it has little meaning for the season. Rice is a program in our league, and thus they should be given weight and respect and we can look forward to a fun basketball contest.
Do you like hoops? I do, too. Let’s look at this matchup.
The Basics
Location: The Super Pit, Denton, TX 8pm CT ESPNU
Matchup Info:
Overall UNT leads 25-10
In Denton UNT 9-2
In Houston UNT 11-5
Neutral UNT 2-1
Last UNT 71 Rice 55 - 3/9/24 Houston, TX
Streak W21
UNT form WWWWL
Rice form WLWWW2
Rice 2-0 in AAC
UNT 1-1 in AAC
Rankings:
Kenpom: Rice 164 NT 70
EvanMiya: Rice 149 NT 79
NET: Rice 141 NT 70
Spread -11.5 NT
Basic Stats:
Advanced Numbers: https://kenpom.com/gameprep.php?g=2577
About Rice
Rob Lanier used to coach for SMU, and he’s 1-1 againt UNT, lifetime. He was fired from the Ponies and took over in Houston this season. They have a couple of SMU transfers on the squad — Emory Lanier, and Denver Anglin. I watched them beat Charlotte and here are the notes:
The main threats are the ball-handlers Trae Broadnax, and Denver Anglin. Broadnax is at 13.6 per game, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.1. assists in 33 minutes. He has good size at 6'4" and he touches the ball a ton while being a very efficient scorer for them. Anglin is also efficient, but doesn’t handle the ball as much. He’s an off-the-ball runner, who will do some catch and shoot stuff, but also likes to attack off the dribble. Anglin is at 8.7 ppg in 20 minutes. They both push the pace and look for quick buckets at the rim. Both will take a quick shot, but Broadnax will also get some post-ups late. In the under-five stuff they looked to clear out a side so he could get some deep post-ups. Alem Huseinovic is their deep threat, shooting 40% from the field. They’ll run sets to get him open off curls and things aside from being a catch-and-shoot guy to keep the defense honest. He is their main threat on out-of-bounds stuff.
Another key guy is Kellon Amos, a 6'7" G/F from Houston. He’s at 10 per game and is used for screens and ball handling stuff. He’s at 2.8 assists per game in that off-ball role. Usually one of the guards will initiate the offense, find Amos on a cut, and then cut off that. Amos will look for Huseinovic, Anglin, or Broadnax on the next action. He’s a good passer, big, and can score in one-on-one scenarios to make him a threat.
Others:
44 Caden Powell is big — 6'10" 220lbs but is awkward with the ball. He gets his on put-backs, duck-ins, and hustle plays. He’s at 9.7 and 7.4 and that’s mostly through size. He has athleticism, but it’s a wild kind.
3 Patterson 6'9" 225, 5 Dar 6'7" 170, 24 Oladokun 6'9" 220 are all size guys who are in to spell Powell et al, run the press, set screens, and get duck-ins, put-backs, and other hustle plays. Dar ran some of the Amos role stuff when he spelled him but it was early in the game.
Defensively Rice looked engaged but a little disjointed. Watching a lot of NT basketball will make you think negatively of a lot of teams. They gambled a ton on defense, and their switches were a little disconnected. They like to switch with all their similar sized guys vs Charlotte. The bigs are all block-happy and take big swings. 24 Oladokun, and 5 Dar have good defensive tools, but like to gamble.
Some Things To Look For
My guess is we’ll see our best perimeter defenders on 12 Broadnax and 4 Anglin. Really the key is to slow the pace for them a bit, and then not allow the bigs to get clean-up, hustle points. The Rice bigs had some really poor ball handling moments — dribbling, catching, passing etc — vs Charlotte and they got passed that by simply being more active. On one play 24 missed an easy look and 5 cleaned it up … only to miss an even easier one. 24 cleaned that up after. North Texas did a good job contesting Memphis’ bigs and Ross Hodge teams are very good at battling for stuff. I am not super worried there. Size is size, however, and Powell is a big dude.
The Memphis press bothered Atin Wright, and I expect to see more of Rice’s press just to see what is what. Wright should be ready for a bounce-back game at home, however.
NT is more efficient offensively and one of the better defenses in the nation. I don’t expect Broadnax and Anglin to find things as easy in this one with Dello on either. The Rice bigs’ poor ball handling should lead to some easy looks, and I expect foul trouble for some of Rice’s more undisciplined defenders.
Something to think about: Evan Miya says NT plays the same way vs good and bad teams, while Rice plays better against good teams.
Enjoy the game, folks.
Straight from the game notes, folks.
Yes, I am stealing a soccer bit here, y’all.