NIT: Semifinal vs UC Irvine

Tough defense, good offense

Kenpom thinks we lose this one. UC Irvine hosted UAB and won in overtime. They showed the kind of grit and tough defense that you need to win the late tournament rounds. They have offensive talent. They have a got-to guy. They can shoot and they defend the hell out of the ball.

We like to say that the teams only get tougher when you win and that is true. NT eliminated a Furman (good offense), Arkansas State (good team), Oklahoma State (talented) on the way to this point. UC Irvine is the best of the bunch. Kenpom has them at 67 (we are at 69) and NT is 0-3 against the KP top 60.¹

The Anteaters

This team won 31 games this season. They know how to lock down, do dirty work, get tough rebounds, get tough stops, find points when and where it is tough, and win. Against UAB, Devin Tillis, the 6’7” forward hit a clutch top-of-key three pointer to close the gap. He later bodied up Yax Lendeborg when the UAB forward tried to bully-ball his way into the game-tying points.

Myles Che hurt his shoulder on a pump fake attempt (drew the foul) but managed to find buckets, and a huge assist to big man Bent Leuchten (7-1, out of Germany). Justin Hohn was locked up and had a tough time against UAB’s athleticism but he averages 12.1 points per game including seven straight double-digit games (including 22 vs Jacksonville State) up to that point. He can get buckets.

Quick scouting report:

77 Myles Che — 6’2” 190: A quick guard with some hesitation moves. He likes the pick and roll and has some fakes to get you off your feet. He hit a crazy step-back late vs UAB. As he goes, so do the bigs. He’s at 12.1 ppg and 28 or so minutes per game. Expect to see him handle the ball a ton.

2 Justin Hohn — 6’2” 190 — Another slight guard with good ball skills. He can shoot and drive. He can create his own shot at all three levels.

24 Jurian Dixon — 6’4” 195 — he’s young but played 42 minutes vs UAB. He has crazy athleticism and can get to the rim and finish with acrobatic qualities. He was the Big West Frosh of the year, averaged 8.7 ppg on 26 min per game. He’s dangerous on the break and in breakdown situations.

11 Devin Tillis — 6’7” 225 — He has like a bigger Paul Pierce build, who can play like a big man inside, but step out and handle the rock with ease. He had some big threes, but also some nice inside moves and tough bully-ball buckets. Against Yax Lendeborg, he was happy to absorb contact and get his hands in passing lanes. He puts up 13.4 ppg and also played the whole way vs UAB. His efficiency numbers are ridiculous.

15 Bent Leuchten — 7’1” 260 — Big man with a soft touch out of Germany. He can shoot the ball, hit his free throws, and has good touch around the rim. He’s big and will rebound, but can be pushed around a little. He had 18 and 10 vs UAB.

14 Kyle Evans — 6’10” 195 — A junior with size htat came in and blocked some shots. He doesn’t play much but spelled Leuchten and offered some big minutes.

10 Ofure Ojadughele — 6’4” 225 — utility guy that came on to spell the guards and steal some minutes. He’s experienced and happy to do dirty work.

Game Plan

North Texas doesn’t allow baseline drives, without help and the no-middle defense is tough to face. Teams attack it by moving the ball and getting out in transition. UC Irvine plays very good defense, anchored by their big man in the middle and his supporting help in Tillis. They have active hands and move well together. They will be looking to get easy buckets through their guards on the break in transition.

Offensively, we’ll see some pick-and-roll with Che and Hohn trying their hands. They are quick and can get into the paint. They’ll test NT’s defense and will also likely have the typical game plan to get a paint touch but not go all the way to the rim. Teams usually like to look for mid rangers to take advantage of the NT desire to block shots.

Tillis will be a problem in the post and he can score and create for others in there.

Offensively, NT needs a great game from Lorient, Wright and Floyd. Grant Newell and Sissoko have enough size and athleticism to match their bigs, but their skill level might mean they win the battle of stats. Lorient will have his hands full against Tillis, as he has a nice array of moves.

The UC Irvine bigs are not super fast, and when Che and Hohn drive it is possible to beat the entire squad down the court on some early breaks. I can see Newell and Lorient finding some easy ones there, or Wright getting a nice pull-up in transition.

NT has struggled vs the press, and this squad is not a super press-heavy team. They are big and will challenge you at the rim. Lorient, Massie, et al who thrive on getting shots over and around dudes might struggle here.

Defensively, I expect NT to limit Che and Hohn’s ability to drive and create, but I think Che will find some space if he wants to live with a step-back game all night. If he catches fire? Well that is that. If not, I think I don’t mind that so much.

This is another game where Sissoko’s ability to stay out of foul-trouble will be huge. UC Irvine will spell Leuchten with Evans and he will be solid defensively but can also go smaller and leave Tillis as the five and have success.

Predictions

NT is a point-and-a-half favorite in Vegas. Kenpom gives UC Irvine a 1-point nod.

They have a slightly more efficient defense, while NT has the slightly more efficient offense. I think they are overall more skilled inside between their two bigs, and shoot free throws really well. They play great defense, and sort of nullify NT’s attacking strength. I don’t know that their guards are good enough defensively to bother Wright, Floyd, and/or Jossell.

That’s the basic stuff. These two will have had about a week’s worth of preparation for each other and so we can expect some interesting things.

GMG.

1. McNeese 58, Memphis 51.