NIT Preview: Arkansas State
An old nemesis returns to the Pit
Tonight, we continue the NIT festivities. This is Year Four of the NIT, and Year Five of Postseason entries. North Texas looked like they were going to be postseason participants in 2020, but the Pandemic cancelled all of that. My unofficial pulse check on the online fanbase is that there is a little bit of a feeling of slight ingratitude. It is normal, and UNT’s fans are nowhere near as off-putting as Memphis fans. Sure, it is uncouth to compare yourself to others, but that is also what everyone does all the time. The whole endeavor of competitive college basketball is to compare your program with the next. A given program reflects a region or municipality and especially the wealthy. Oh, your hometown is too poor to put out a good program? How awful for you.
This is how it all works. Once upon a time North Texas poached the head coach from Arkansas State. He had just won 20 games, but didn’t like the area and was looking for a return to Texas. Right place, right time, good basketball hiring instincts. That set North Texas on a winning run and the most accomplished basketball played in Denton. He moved on, but his assistant who followed him from Jonesboro to Denton still remains. That is where we are tonight. North Texas vs Arkansas State in the NIT 2nd round in Denton.
This is best basketball team on the schedule since Memphis, and the lowest Top-100 Kenpom team since High Point. We have written in this space before that the opposition only gets harder once March arrives. The conference tournaments, and the postseason tournaments only bring more and better programs at you. The advantages are slight, if there at all. North Texas is at home, in front of a smallish crowd (compared to the thousands at the NCAA sites) but in a Sliding Doors situation, this could have been a Big Dance matchup.
Arkansas State is efficient on offense, and solid on defense. NT is the better defensive team, but we have seen better defenses in Denton the last five years. I have not watched a ton of Ark St, and I wonder if their size will disrupt NT the way UAB’s did. Memphis also threw a ton of athletes at NT and bothered North Texas in some ways.
The starting five is tall — Todd is 6-4, Pinion 6-5, Julien 6-6, and Nelson 6-10. The second units are more mid-major level height. The chief concerns for NT are at the physicality level. Can Mou Sissoko hold his own inside? He has done so against most everyone including Dainja at Memphis. UAB disrupted NT’s offense more than they scored on NT, and NT has a tendency to get into scoring droughts followed by scoring floods. Finding some consistent buckets is the challenge. At this point in the season, it is what it is. You want the droughts to be smaller, and the floods to be biblical.
Atin Wright has his moment. In March he has scored 21, 42, 18, 24, 12*, and 18. That low of 12 was in the loss to UAB. He *can* score at all three levels, but he’s most devastating creating his own shot on the perimeter and stretching the defense. Lorient’s target is 10-15 points and 7 rebounds. Mou’s is 8 points and 10 rebounds. Floyd can get 10 points. Everyone else is on that 4-6 point range. NT needs Other Guys and it doesn’t really matter who is doing the scoring as long as it is done.
The hope is that Grant Newell gets out of his weird slump that has seen him miss the most softest of bunnies at the rim. He was advertised as a slashing 4-man with some range, and has mostly been that but for some weird misses. He went 0-2 from the field vs Furman but had 9 points thanks to a three-ball and six free throws. We can live with that all day, but he would probably be even more aggressive if he could make a layup.
The skinny on stAte is that they play quicker than NT, are pretty efficient, and don’t turn the ball over a ton. It will be a style fight, and NT will try to slow the game down. I’m sure there will be moments where that style looks more like the Red Wolves’ game — just like vs Furman. In the first round, North Texas imposed their will in the second half and proved their superiority. Let’s hope for more of that. GMG