More Transfer Portal Analysis
Some very early roster analysis as well
If you haven’t paid close attention, it can seem like North Texas is announcing a new signing every day, and that there are portal exists to count along with that. We tried our best to capture the totality of the comings and goings to get a sense of what is involved for the football squad. We are particularly interested in the defense. However, for completion’s sake we can discuss the offensive headlines first, with the knowledge that we have a long offseason to talk about the rest of how it all breaks down.
Offense
QB: Poffenbarger is the most experienced. He is the transfer from Miami and should get the starting nod over Mestemaker. The latter is the minor sensation who threw for 393 vs Texas St in the First Responder Bowl adding a run for a 70-yard touchdown. He played well but missed some throws. I don’t know that anyone will feel bad about him beating out Poffenbarger besides Poff himself. Also new, via the high school ranks: Jimmerson. He’s a talent but is also short.
WR: North Texas lost DT, and hasn’t gained anyone of equal production. Also gone via the normal graduation path are Conwright, and Ward. Via the portal are Aaron, Rempert, and Dudley, a little used back-up. In? Simeon Evans, and Cameron Dorner. Evans is a transfer from Sam Houston who is big and probably will be the X. Dorner is a former hooper who played at Shepard. He’s tall, and might get time at X or Z. Beyond that it is guys you’ve seen on the depth chart. Carnes, Tipton, Koch, are the likely candidates for backup X/Z. Carnes had a ton of time and Koch played early. Coleman, Sides, and Young had lots of time at the H and Y spots. Expect that to continue.
TE: This position is a bigger role in the Morris Air Raid. NT lost two (Hammond and Carter) and replaced them with Vaughn, and Williams. My guess is that we’ll see more of Brandon Young will spells from whoever impresses in practice.
OL: NT lost about 7 (depending on your source) guys to graduation or the portal. The most key was Mercer, who left for Kansas after a nice freshman year at Center. NT added four from the portal — Obidegwu, Nnanna, Yanta, and Lamb. Add to that the fact that Dickson played a lot in various positions, and you fell okay. This group was rotating so much that the hope is that they settle on something consistent. There is really no telling what to expect.
RB: NT lost the top three backs — Ragsdale, Price, and Harris — and relied upon freshmen and a walk-on. Shane Porter left for UTEP, Ragsdale is in the portal, and there is no word on if Price will try to continue after his devastating injury. Harris says he will return, but we don’t know. We’ll see Sibley, and McGill get a chance and the staff likes Gray, but the names to watch are incoming guys Clayton-Johnson, and Becks. The former is an all-around guy, and the latter a burner.
Defense
Okay acknowledging that NT had a poor defense, you don’t necessarily want to throw everyone out. The system is changing, however, and some guys were encouraged to transfer while others were testing the water. North Texas is playing with a four-down lineman system, and that means more pass rushing edge rushers are needed. North Texas had two of that body type get lots of snaps in Shipley and Dawkins but they both graduated.
EDGE: By my count there are six Edge rushers brought in from the portal — Day, Pierce, Smith, Hayes (from Sam Houston), and Morgan. Knox is a HS signee, also. There are also a couple of guys that are in that Edge rusher mold — somewhere around 6-5 to 6-7, and about 240 to 260. You want something like a 1990s power forward build. So like Laperi maybe gets a look along with Charles. The starter will be Hayes, but he needs someone to spell him. It’s likely to be one of the recent transfers.
Nose | DT: You need one bigger, and one that can be quicker, but both need to be sizeable. NT lost Rod Brown but got Quincy Wright and Richard Outland Jr. from Sam Houston. Expect more Vailea and Bronson and maybe some Langley.
LB: There are two, but the Edge can be a linebacker type and does linebacker things. So you can go with three in specific situations. You also want depth. NT lost five to graduation, and one to the portal (backup). The big portal signees are Fields and Burrell. The former played a ton for Cassidy at Sam Houston, and the latter was a big time recruit for Texas before transferring. He’s a talent. We’ll see more Wesloski, Whitter, and Chavez Brown as well. That’s about five deep and leaves room for one of the depth guys to make an appearnce.
Safety: The distinction between a strong safety and a free safety is pretty well gone, but the Star is a hybrid corner/safety/linebacker type. Really, depending on the situation and what you can recruit you can mix and match. NT lost four to the portal, and two to graduation. Jones and Warner Jr were added from the portal. I think we’ll see Isheem Young again, but that’s not certain. Gant, Smith, Allen Jr, Hammonds, and McFarland all got time. Evan Jackson returned from the portal as well. I think you can see a Jones | Hammonds | Jackson combination to start. But it all depends on what happens in the fall.
CB: Nelson played well as a redshirt freshman, and Starling did some okay things as well. NT lost four to graduation and the portal, including young guys Brice and Williams. The portal brings likely starters Armstead & Fisher from Sam Houston. Also coming in are Canada and Knox. Morris wanted to get older in a lot of spots and they have.
Big Questions
What does the offense look like next year? The same. It is still a modern Air Raid offense with an aim at spreading the ball out to guys who can score. The execution was very good at times, but a shaky, injured and poor-performing offensive line limited that. Their play contributed to the injury to the QB, whose performances declined in the second half of the year. Injuries also bit the running back room and wide out room. I have to believe that Eric Morris is going to think he can get more 600-yard, 50-point performances with just a little more luck, and a little more consistency.
Who is the playmaker? The Becks kid from Missouri State is interesting. Miles Coleman can explode for yards, and don’t forget about the ‘twins’, Sides and Young. Interestingly enough, as I mentioned above, the issue last year wasn’t necessarily big plays — NT got those — but the consistent chain-movers. Drops on every down, or missed blocks, or missed reads — those limited the offense in the second half. It wasn’t that guys couldn’t make plays. Even DT Sheffield was dropping passes!
Is this defense going to be good? It is a simple defense that can look complex. In that way it is like the Air Raid — a limited number of plays executed well and run quickly. The idea is that the Cassity 4-2-5 is going to look confusing with simulated pressures and dropping edge rushers, but it will be fairly simple stuff with split safety coverages — some cover three — with underneath zones to make sure everything is handled. The secret — if there is one — is that Cassity has his guys prepared and playing fast. Fast beats clever more often than not. You also don’t need to have a host of fancy pressures when your edge rusher can beat the tackle and hit your QB. Suddenly everyone is great in coverage when that can happen. North Texas was poor getting pressures and the squads in this league that could — UTSA, etc — run a similar scheme.
Will there be more transfers? Probably. The portal is a powerful tool. Eric Morris said he wanted to get the OL solid, add guys to fit the scheme for Cassity, and also find more depth. I think the one glaring area that doesn’t have a ton of proven depth is at X and Z. Those positions were good sometimes, but lost out to the H and Y guys overall.
Some numbers: the top three X/Z guys totaled 120 receptions for 1668 yards and 13 scores. Nice, huh? Well, in 2018 Guyton and Bussey (X and Z) had 122 catches for 1822 and 18 scores. In 2017, when Mike Lawrence (a Y-position guy) had 62, 819, and 4 (comparable to DT Sheffield’s 66, 822 and 11) to lead the team, the outside receivers totaled 131 for 2075 and 21 scores.
Not everyone can be Guyton and Bussey, but you see that we could stand to get more pop from the outside positions. Is that dude on the roster? I don’t know. There’s a whole offseason to develop one, and a limited recruiting time to add one.
Can they be good next year? The schedule doesn’t have any juggernauts but everyone is trying to get better. North Texas will like have an offense that can score, but had made steps to finally get a defense that can get some stops. I would say that in 2023, NT could have won 9 games if they had anything like a solid defense, i.e they weren’t bottom of the nation. The same could be said for this year’s team. If they could stop Army once, maybe Memphis one more time, and definitely get close to Tulane then it would have been an entirely different season. It would have looked like … well the games against Tulsa, and Wyoming probably. I don’t know that it is reasonable to expect a CFP berth next season, but I can see competing for an AAC title with the right performances and the right luck (no injuries, please).
MGN will of course have more detail next season as we get closer to the actual games. That’s a whole eight months away, so let’s focus on some basketball in the next month, okay?
GMG