Beyond the Arc: UNT at a CrossRoads

Greg on the UAB loss

Finding the Offense Again

I’ve always been real with y’all about where UNT stands in basketball. I don’t sugarcoat things, and I don’t hesitate to give credit where it’s due. Sure, I might overreact on Twitter after a loss—who doesn’t? That’s part of the ride. That’s probably why I get labeled a hater (or just Tylor Perry’s Hater, apparently). But here’s the deal: I have standards for this program, and when they don’t meet them, I’m going to say so.

So, let’s have an honest conversation about where UNT is right now, because just last week, it was all sunshine and rainbows heading into the Wichita State game.

Now? Well, three games later, UNT is officially at a crossroads. The team is teetering on the edge—falling from a top seed to a potential four-games-in-four-days gauntlet in the conference tournament with a short bench. They’re banged up, they’re bruised, they’re sick, and—most importantly—they’ve been figured out by AAC opponents. Wichita State, UTSA, and UAB held UNT’s offense in check. We’re talking about a team that was averaging an offensive efficiency of 124.2 over the previous five games, now down to 93.1 over the last three. That’s not just a shooting slump. That’s teams taking away what UNT does well and forcing them to find other ways to score.

One of the biggest reasons for UNT’s offensive success before this stretch? Brenen Lorient. I’ve been high on what he’s done, and how he was taking this offense to new heights. But over the last three games, his usage percentage has dropped from 29.4% over six games to 24.3%. That might not seem like much, but that’s seven fewer possessions where he’s getting involved. And when Lorient’s usage drops, it directly impacts UNT’s ability to get to the free-throw line—a key factor in their offensive efficiency.

In the six-game stretch where UNT’s offense was rolling, their FT rate was 47.3. In the last three games? 22.9. That’s a massive drop. And if you’re wondering how Lorient ties into that, let’s put it this way: he’s one of the top players in the country at drawing fouls. In conference play, he’s drawing six fouls per 40 minutes. In terms of his actual playing time, that’s about 3.9 drawn fouls per game. The more touches he gets, the more fouls he draws, the more free throws UNT gets, and the better the offense runs. That’s the formula.

So, if you’re Ross Hodge and the staff, your top priority should be maximizing Lorient’s involvement the rest of the way. He’s the best player on this team, and this roster is clearly missing a go-to guy. You’ve got eight games left to figure it out.

---

The Path Forward

I’ve said this plenty, but this is a veteran squad. They’ve been through adversity before. They know what it takes. But they have to decide what they want to be. This program was built on toughness and defense—when all else fails, those are still there to lean on.

There are good players on this team, but this is not a top-four roster in the AAC. UAB, Memphis, Temple, and FAU? They have more top-end talent than UNT and, to be honest, they’re more dangerous in a conference tournament setting. But that doesn’t mean UNT is out of it. Conference tournaments are a crapshoot. Trying to predict what will happen now is useless. And let’s be real: being healthy heading into the tournament is probably more important than being “hot” at the right time.

And right now, UNT is far from healthy. Sissoko is battling what looks like a laundry list of injuries. Dello and Jossell have been sick. Hodge has stuck to an eight-man rotation for a while, but maybe it’s time to shake things up. Tyran Mason might be worth giving some minutes to—he could provide a much-needed offensive spark. Throwing him into the fire against UAB probably wasn’t the best idea since that game was so physical, but Tulane at home? That feels like a good time to give him 3-4 minutes and see what happens. This team needs a jolt of energy right now.

---

No Need to Panic… Yet

For UNT fans, this isn’t the time to panic. No one came into this season thinking this was an at-large NCAA Tournament team. But for a few weeks, this team made us believe it could be. That’s just how college basketball works—it giveth, and it taketh away. It’s brutal.

Still, this team has shown they can make winning plays in winning time. You can gripe about some of the late-game execution lately, but don’t overlook the ones that went UNT’s way earlier in the year. They’ve won tight games. They’ve hit big shots.

The key now? They need to tweak their offensive identity and adjust to how teams are guarding them. They have to get back to what works and find a way to counter the adjustments opponents are making. If they can do that, they’ll be just fine.

Until next time, stay patient, stay hopeful, and be kind.