Beyond The Arc: North Texas vs. Tulane Preview
NT returns home for more hooping
Saturday’s matchup against Tulane is a big one, and it deserves a preview worthy of that. You could have said the same thing about the UAB game, and you got me there—I didn’t do one. That’s on me. I apologize, but let me offer this one to help bring some positivity back to UNT. Let’s be honest, they need it. This team needs to find that edge again, the one that had them rolling to a strong start in conference play.
And what better way to do that than in a game that could shape the rest of the season?
What’s at Stake?
North Texas and Tulane both sit at 7-3 in AAC play, tied for third place behind Memphis and UAB, who have created a little separation at the top. That third and fourth spot matter because they come with a bye straight into the conference tournament quarterfinals. No one wants to be stuck needing four wins in four days to make a title run when you could make it three. Just ask last year’s Temple team that made a great run to the AAC Championship game—only to run out of gas in their fifth game in five days after starting from the 11 vs. 12 game.
That’s why this one matters.
There’s also a tiebreaker on the line, because North Texas and Tulane only play once this season. And that once happens in Denton. Protecting The Pit isn’t just a cliché here; it’s a necessity. If UNT loses, Tulane gets the head-to-head edge. If UNT wins, they’re in control of their own destiny.
And if you’re looking ahead at the closing stretch, it’s easy to see how important it is to bank this win now. Tulane? Only one game left against this group of teams fighting for the 3rd and 4th seeds—this one against UNT. Then they close the season with UAB at home. North Texas, on the other hand, still has road trips to Temple, FAU, and USF. That’s a brutal finish, and while they don’t have Memphis or UAB left, the road to a top-four seed is far from easy.
If you take the KenPom average ranking of remaining opponents, UNT’s path looks like this:
USF
FAU
Temple
Tulane
UNT
So yeah, this game matters.
What is Tulane About?
If you had Tulane sitting near the top of the standings in February, congratulations. They were picked 13th in the preseason and are proving just about everyone wrong. Ron Hunter has done a phenomenal job rebuilding this roster after last season’s disappointment, and it all starts with Rowan Brumbaugh.
Brumbaugh was a big-time recruit who initially landed at Texas before transferring to Georgetown. He wasn’t a starter there, but he played meaningful minutes. Tulane saw something and made him a priority in the portal, and now, he’s the guy making this team go.
He’s their highest-usage player, the one dictating their pace. He’s a great passer with a tremendous feel for the game, and he puts constant pressure on defenses.
Assist rate? 12th in the AAC, 169th nationally.
3-point shooting? 40.4% in conference play.
Shot selection? He’s taking 8.7 shots per game from three or at the rim.
And he’s not a small guard, either—he’s 6’4”, so he can see over the defense.
Beyond Brumbaugh, Tulane has three key weapons: Kaleb Banks, Gregg Glenn, and Asher Woods.
Banks (6’8 F) and Glenn (6’7 F) are physical, downhill attackers who live in the paint. Together, they get 8 shots per game at the rim. Banks is a matchup nightmare, ranking in the 90th percentile in shots per game at the rim and shooting 72% on twos in AAC play—including a ridiculous 76.7% at the rim. UNT has struggled against guys like him all season. Newell and Lorient are going to have their hands full.
Asher Woods (6’3 G) is the high-energy guy who makes all the hustle plays. He’s not a great shooter, but he’s streaky. More importantly, he’s another paint-attacker, averaging 3.2 shots per game at the rim in AAC play.
They also get contributions from Mari Jordan (6’5, 34.5% from three) and Kam Williams (6’8, 37.6% from three, 1.6 blocks per game in his last five).
How Tulane Wins Games
It’s not complicated. Tulane’s offense is built around attacking the defense off the dribble. They want to drive, kick, reset, and repeat until they get the shot they want. Over 30% of their offensive possessions are spot-up plays, meaning they love breaking down defenses and creating open shots.
That’s a problem for UNT’s defense, because while the Mean Green have great on-ball defenders, they tend to be overly aggressive helping. If you force UNT’s defense to rotate, someone is going to be left open. And in today’s game, that’s how you get beat.
Tulane averages 14.9 assists per game and ranks 40th nationally in assist percentage—meaning they move the ball well.
UNT ranks 106th nationally in opponent assist percentage, so teams aren’t exactly shredding them, but Tulane’s passing will be a test.
Tulane gets 49% of their shots in the lane, making 51% of them. UNT’s opponents usually get 46% of their shots in the lane, making 49.7%.
The corner three is a major weapon for Tulane (37.6% from there) and also a problem spot for UNT’s defense (36.9% allowed).
The Turnover Problem
If you take away nothing else from this preview, take this: UNT has to take care of the ball.
Tulane is 3rd in the AAC in steal percentage and averages 7.9 steals per game (8.4 in AAC play).
UNT has turned it over 42 times in their last three games. In their previous five games (all wins)? 44 total turnovers.
UNT ranks in the bottom 10% nationally in points per possession allowed in transition defense, while Tulane ranks in the top 65% nationally in points per possession scored in transition offense.
You see where this is going. Turnovers = easy Tulane buckets.
Where UNT Can Attack
It won’t be easy, because Tulane has the 2nd best defensive efficiency in AAC play.
Opponent 3PT%: 28.9%
Block rate: 53rd nationally
Free Throw Rate: 4th lowest in AAC play
But there is an opening. Post-ups.
UNT doesn’t use them much (only 8.5% of possessions), but they’re highly efficient when they do. Tulane is below average in post-up defense, and UNT needs to take advantage.
Final Thoughts
This is going to be a fight. UNT has to limit turnovers, control the paint, and get back to their defensive identity. The formula for success isn’t complicated:
Take care of the ball.
Get to the free-throw line.
Defend the paint.
Nothing is hanging over UNT. No curses, no bad karma—just a team that hasn’t played winning basketball lately. So go win, Mean Green.
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