Beyond The Arc: Jan 30, 2024

The week that will be

Heart-Stopping Week for North Texas: A Tale of Last-Second Thrills and Agonies

Last week was an emotional rollercoaster for North Texas fans. They witnessed an epic home victory against SMU and the return of Rubin Jones, who immediately started dropping dimes, only to leave the court again due to a re-injured hamstring. John Buggs also made a dramatic comeback, going 4-4 from the three-point line. North Texas narrowly survived a last-second game-winning shot attempt by SMU. They then went toe-to-toe with one of the top 30 teams in the country on their home court. Without Rubin, they saw another amazing game from Buggs, with Jason Edwards and CJ Noland performing exceptionally well. Robert Allen provided unexpected scoring, but they had no answer for Johnell Davis, who crushed their hopes with a last-second game-winning three-pointer. It was a week full of glory, frustration, and tears – the quintessential college basketball experience. Most fans are likely debating some questionable calls made in the final moments. For Coach Ross Hodge and his team, the focus will be on missed opportunities and the finer details.

For the third game in a row, North Texas forced FAU to play at their preferred pace but couldn't secure a victory. The frustration for Hodge must be immense. The game was within reach, with FAU playing at the slower pace North Texas wanted. The game had about 60 possessions, fewer than FAU's average of 67 in their past five games. In our “Storylines to Watch” in last week's Beyond the Arc, we mentioned that FAU was 9-1 when their assist percentage was above 48.8%; in this game, it was only 45.8%. They managed just 11 assists, below their average of 16 per game. So, what went wrong for North Texas? Hodge would likely point to FAU's offensive rebounding as a major issue. FAU grabbed 17 offensive rebounds and scored 21.2% of their points from second-chance opportunities. Allowing a proficient offensive team like FAU so many chances is a recipe for disaster. FAU was 9-1 when at least 38% of their shots were three-pointers; in this game, 45.6% of their shots were from beyond the arc. Another area of concern for Hodge would be the timely mistakes. Noland carelessly turned over the ball in a tie game with 2:44 left on the clock in a 59-59 game. It should have been an easy pass to Edwards, but instead, it went into the backcourt. Multiple times, North Texas lost track of Johnell Davis in transition, and he made them pay with three-pointers. Rondel Walker left Davis open for an easy three in the second half, failing to stay close enough to him. Fans were understandably upset with John Buggs for taking a three-pointer with 25 seconds left in the game, right after Robert Allen had secured the rebound. Granted, Buggs was 4-4 from three at that point and had a wide-open look. Perhaps they wouldn’t have gotten as good a look if he had backed it out and run down the clock, but FAU might not have had an easy look for Davis if there was less time. It’s tough to fault a player for taking that shot. Hodge had ample time to call a timeout after Allen’s rebound, as he still had one left. It’s a learning situation for both player and coach, and I don’t have a problem with how it played out. The shot just didn’t fall this time.

However, there is a larger point to be made here. North Texas had two possessions at the end of the SMU and FAU games where they had the opportunity to either seal the victory or hit the go-ahead shot, and they failed to execute both times. You could also look back at the end of the first half possessions in both games, which both ended with Jason Edwards turnovers. These moments might not seem significant at the time, but they matter, especially against strong opponents. North Texas hit big shot after big shot coming down the stretch in both games, so we know they can execute in crunch time. We’ve also seen Hodge draw up some quality sets out of timeouts. It ultimately comes down to execution. North Texas could have easily lost both games on last-second shots, which would have been tragic. Fortunately, the basketball gods were kind enough to give them one win. I doubt many NT fans could have endured two last-second losses in one week.