Beyond The Arc: 12.10.24
Taking Stock of the Squad During the Break
Editor’s note: This is another guest post from Greg Goedecker, whom some of you know from social media. He hasn’t fully committed to the substack life just yet, but you can always comment on the post and I’ll make sure he can read your hot sports opinions.
Tip-Off: Hitting Pause
Alright, y’all, we’re in a rare slow stretch for UNT basketball, with no games until December 18th. That gives us a moment to catch our breath, look back at what’s worked (and what hasn’t), and figure out what this team is all about. Feast Week gave us some highs—big wins over Oregon State and Northern Iowa—but the losses to Utah State and High Point? Let’s just say those left a sour taste. Now’s the time to dive in, break things down, and see where UNT stands as conference play creeps closer.
Fast Break Recap: Feast Week Rollercoaster
The Good:
UNT came out swinging during Feast Week with wins against Oregon State and Northern Iowa. Those games were textbook Mean Green basketball: swarming defense, turning turnovers into points, and dominating the boards. Against Northern Iowa, we saw the kind of performance that makes you believe this team could challenge for a conference championship.The Bad:
Then came Utah State. Losing to a good team like that isn’t the issue—it’s howUNT lost. Utah State went straight at one of UNT’s biggest strengths, scoring at the rim like it was a layup line. Normally, UNT is a brick wall inside, only giving up 13.3 shots at the rim per game (30th best in the country). Utah State? They got 21. Ouch.
High Point wasn’t much better. They shot an absurd 61.3% in the paint, well above the 50.1% average UNT usually allows. And let’s not forget Kimani Hamilton, who dropped 8 points in the paint and lived at the free-throw line (16 attempts!). Even worse, High Point out-rebounded UNT 32-25, something that really shouldn’t happen against a team that came in struggling on the glass.
A Rare Loss Despite Hot Shooting:
This one stings. UNT shot 50% from three against High Point, a stat that’s basically a guaranteed win (22-4 when hitting that mark since 2020). To lose despite that kind of shooting shows just how many other things went wrong.
In the Huddle: Defensive Identity, Second-Half Slips
· Elite Defense Overall:
UNT’s defense has been as good as advertised, ranked in the Top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency. They lead the nation in percentage of opponent possessions ending in steals, and their defensive rebounding is elite, allowing just 6.4 second-chance points per game (6th best). Opponents are scoring only 13.3% of their total points off second chances, a massive improvement from last year when UNT ranked 327th in that category.
· Second-Half Problems:
The second half is where things start to fall apart. Opponents go from shooting 34.1% in the first half to 51.7% in the second. UNT’s defensive efficiency balloons from 76.2 in the first half to 117.6 in the second. Foul trouble is a big reason why. UNT averages just 5 fouls in the first half but commits 12 in the second, leading to an opponent free-throw rate of 77.2%. McNeese State and High Point are prime examples: those two teams combined for 64 second-half free throws. UNT’s physical defense is great, but they need to adjust to how games are being called.
· Sissoko’s Impact:
Moulaye Sissoko is the glue holding this defense together. When he’s on the floor, UNT’s defensive efficiency improves by 15.2 points, and their defensive rebounding percentage is an incredible 89.5% (96th percentile). Without him, that number plummets to 66.7% (22nd percentile). Sissoko’s presence is non-negotiable for this team’s success.
Offensive Woes: What’s the Plan?
· Shooting Woes:
UNT’s offense is, let’s face it, a work in progress. They rank 348th nationally in 2-point percentage, 357th in field goal percentage at the rim, and 293rd in half-court field goal percentage. High-usage players like Jonathan Massie and Brenen Lorient are getting to good spots but not finishing. Massie is shooting just 36% at the rim (20th percentile), and Lorient isn’t much better at 54.8% (also 20th percentile).
· Floyd’s Inconsistency:
Jasper Floyd is a key player for this team, and his performances correlate directly with UNT’s success. In their best games (Evansville, Northern Iowa), Floyd shot 73.4%. In their three losses? He managed just 15.6%. Teams are treating him like Rajon Rondo, daring him to shoot from the perimeter, and UNT needs to find ways to rebuild his confidence. When Floyd is effective, this offense is much more dangerous.
· Lineup Questions:
UNT’s reliance on Massie at the 4 hasn’t worked. Three of their four most-used lineups feature him there, with an average offensive efficiency of just 74. By comparison, lineups with Sissoko and Newell together boast an offensive efficiency of 113.3.
Lorient’s impact is mixed. He shows flashes of being an offensive weapon, but the data doesn’t always back it up. However, when paired with either Newell or Sissoko, Lorient’s lineups are much more effective offensively (120.3 with Newell, 123.7 with Sissoko). UNT needs to lean into these combinations while finding a better option at the backup 4.
Scouting Report: What Needs to Change
· Expand the Rotation:
UNT’s eight-man rotation might not have enough offensive firepower to win a conference title. Players like Cotton or Mason could provide scoring sparks, and even a few minutes from Vice could stabilize the frontcourt.
· Play Looser, Play Faster:
UNT’s offense struggles late in the shot clock, shooting just 34.6% in those situations. By contrast, they shoot 43% in the first 10 seconds. Playing faster and looser, even within the framework of Hodge’s system, could help this team generate easier scoring opportunities.
· Adjustments Are Key:
To Hodge’s credit, UNT has shown they can adjust. Their offensive efficiency improves from 95.2 in the first half to 111.8 in the second, showing a willingness to tweak things. Now, they need to figure out how to carry those adjustments over to a full 40 minutes.
Final Buzzer: 12 Days to Figure It Out
UNT has the foundation of a championship-caliber defense, but their offense needs work if they want to reach their full potential. This 12-day break is the perfect time to address lineup inefficiencies, offensive struggles, and second-half defensive lapses. The tools are there—it’s just a matter of putting it all together. Let’s see what adjustments they make when they return to action on December 18th.
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