2024 Football Season In Review
A Dive Into The Season That Was
Officially, it isn’t over. There is a bowl game to play and that will definitely color our thoughts on the performance of one Eric Morris. That acknowledged, we can do a lot of evaluating with what we have so far. These twelve games were scheduled before the season and the staff could prepare for them the best.
In preseason I wrote an e-book breaking it all down. We looked at the offense and the defense. We analyzed the roster. The conclusion I came to was that Eric Morris was a good enough offensive mind and the defense had added enough talent that we could get to 8 wins or so.
Prediction:
at USA — Win 42–38
vs SFA — Win 45–14
at TTU — Loss 38–21
vs Wyoming — Win 30-28
vs Tulsa — Win 45–35
at FAU — Loss 38–28
at Memphis — Loss 31–24
vs Tulane — Loss 41–24
vs Army — Win 30–29
at UTSA — Win 30–27
vs ECU — Win 38–17
at Temple — Win 35–27Excerpt From
2024 MGN Season Preview
I thought we’d lose the Memphis/Tulane games. I thought we’d win the Army/UTSA/ECU section of games. I was skeptical of the FAU trip. I think we can all agree the reason we have a bad taste is the Army-ECU weeks. North Texas was up 21 vs the Pirates. They didn’t come out sharp vs the Roadrunners. The QB threw two terrible interceptions vs Army.
We can see that basically the team went as Morris went. It makes sense. The make up of this team was such that a good offense supported by a halfway decent defense should be dangerous.
So what happened?
Well the defense could not stop the run. Memphis gashed the defense for big runs. Anderson had four scores. Tulane walked up and down the field and threw some play-action stuff. Army had the ball for 21 plays and 98 yards that one time. UTSA gashed us. ECU gashed us. Temple sucks.
This is why NT now has Skyler Cassity is the new defensive coordinator.
I like rate statistics over totals, but all numbers need context and tell you something. There are a lot of numbers we could look through, but the run game stuff is the most simple and also tells us a lot about these teams. North Texas allowed 229 to Tulsa and on the podcast I mentioned how I didn’t mind too much. Those yards were late, against backups, and didn’t result in points. The numbers suggest as much. 220 on 47 runs is “just” 4.87 per attempt. There were no rushing scores.
Sam Houston was also sliced up by Jacksonville State (Rich Rodriguez) for 278. Or were they? The Gamecocks needed 58 rushes and managed 4.79 per carry. They did get three rushing scores.
What stands out to me is obviously the total yards allowed, but the averages — the rate. NT only held four teams to sub 4 yards per carry, and its not really a coincidence that those squad are awful running the ball against anyone. For you Caponi fans, it does represent an improvement. NT finished nearly a full yard better per-carry against the run (4.69 vs 5.63). Sam Houston State (against a worse league, but also with a more limited roster) allowed just 3.92 yards against. They had nine games holding the opponent below 4 yards per tote.
Football is a more evolved sport than even 20 years ago, but it still is about blocking and tackling. North Texas was very easily blocked, and didn’t tackle well. You can blame the scheme if you like, but NT played a 3-4 base for most of the season, including the stretch that saw Memphis, Tulane, Army all run it well. UTSA ran all over the 3-high as Caponi played his last hand, and then Odom’s 3-4 was relatively easily handled by ECU. 1
We’ll discuss the new DC a little more in a future post, but Eric Morris wanted a scheme change. He wanted four down lineman instead of the three — so out goes the 3-high/3-4 defense2 and in comes the 4-2-5. That tells you some things about what he thought of his squad. He said throughout the season that “we are too small, too slow, too weak” and he is going about changing that.
All that said, we have to talk about how poorly the offense played in recent weeks. If you grabbed the week one team and put them against Temple, they score 60 points. The team we saw this past week looked fortunate to do anything past the 2nd quarter.
What gives? Well, Chandler Morris was hurt. The season may have turned after NT got a surprise 4th and 1 stop vs Tulane deep in North Texas territory.
Chandler Morris led his team to a field goal attempt and walked off the field as NT was down 7-3. When he next touched the ball, the squad was down 21-3. Mackenzie McGill showed that he is a freshman and fumbled on the kickoff return. Tulane scored in two plays. North Texas never got closer than 37-24 after Morris scampered for 20 yards early in the third quarter. North Texas held Tulane on a 4th and 1 — giving the stadium and the team a little hope for a second.
The very next play was a worst-case-scenario. Chandler Morris was hit on his blindside, fumbled, and hurt his shoulder. Tulane scored the very next play.
Morris returned but he hasn’t been the same since. In the following four games hasn’t reached 300 yards and has a 5:4 TD:INT ratio. For comparison, in the four weeks prior (inclusive of the Tulane game) he had four 300+, including three 400+ games and a 15:2 ratio.
All season he has battled the ever-changing offensive line struggling for health and consistency. Two guys have quit. He’s bit hit, hurried, and oh yeah his running back group are also hurt. He hasn’t been helped by his wideouts either. The numbers would be at least slightly higher if his wideouts were catching passes. There are no unblemished resumes. Damon Ward, Miles Coleman, Wyatt Young, Landon Sides, Carnes, Rempert, and whoever else. They either are outright dropping passes onto their hands, or are not getting open. I’ve seen two wideouts block for noone, leaving Morris staring at them while trying to evade a pass rush. Hard to throw the ball when guys are not even looking for it.
The run game is hit-and-miss. Converted wideout walk-on Shane Porter is a home run hitter, but 11 of his 10+ yard runs have come when NT is trailing, including 6 when NT has been down more than 8 points. Basically, teams are staying back in coverage daring NT to run their way into a big comeback. McGill has also hit some nice ones, but you can tell he’s a young preferred walk-on. He tries to bounce it out a few too many times, misses some pass protection assignments, and generally is still feeling his way to success.
In light of all this — iffy run game, patchwork offensive line, hurt QB, inconsistent wideouts — I am forgiving of Eric Morris’ playcalling. I mean, what do you call when you cannot trust any part of your offense? That said, he has been a little too aggressive on fourth downs. We called him out when he went for it (and missed) on 4th and 6 deep in NT territory on the road in Boca Raton. The defense held FAU to a FG, and NT completed a big comeback eventually but he was asking a lot of his defense.
Even back when the offense was clicking — in Memphis — North Texas’ offense wasted six-straight punts forced by the NT defense.
Eric Morris made some questionable head coach decisions — the two-pointer maybe, the onside kick sure, and some play-calling question marks there also — but there were plenty of player-only mistakes. There were drops, penalties, poor routes, poor throws, missed assignments, poor decisions. And yet. And yet. It is very difficult to argue with 653 yards and 44 points, but I suppose the main argument would be that you can always be better, and there were about 15 points left on the field.
If there was something to not like about Eric Morris pre-NT it was that he was biting off more than he could chew. He was super-aggressive vs North Texas in 2018, but also in 2019 I distinctly remember him going for it on 4th and 10 vs UTSA. It didn’t work out.
I do not mind being aggressive. There is a lot of value in giving your well-drilled offense more opportunities to prove they can move the ball. Good game management, however, sometimes says you should play it a little conservatively. Maybe you punt the ball. Maybe you don’t try a 3rd-and-8 draw to set up a 4th down call because everyone has scouted that for weeks and they know its coming.
Maybe you don’t try to force the screen game that UTSA said they had scouted over the bye week. Maybe maybe maybe.
Now, all that said, I am not getting paid $1MM for my coaching prowess. Let it be known that I do not have better answers, but I can say that our resident offensive guru could probably stand to dial it back on the aggression a bit.
Morris mentioned that some of his aggression comes from feeling he had to make different decisions based on whether or not the defense could get a stop. Maybe the new DC brings out a different play caller.
This season was always going to be tough. Eric Morris said the goal was at least a bowl game. He has to say he thinks the team can do anything, but the sense was that he thought a bowl game appearance was just about right. The hot start was going to happen because of the schedule, and with the right amount of luck getting through the tough middle with maybe one steal of a win would have been ideal. That didn’t happen, and then the squad has fallen apart in the attack in recent weeks. No one expected that, but it is all understandable.
The offensive line has been in constant flux, and now features two freshman. We are going with running backs 4,5, and 6 (two freshman). The TE position has been featuring a freshman thanks to injury. The receiving corps also features four underclassmen in heavy rotation (Coleman, Young, Sides, Carnes). The veterans have either quit (Blair) or been hurt — Peterson, Ward, Ragsdale, Harris, etc — or haven’t performed as we’d hoped (Aaron, Ward, Rempert).
In light of all that, you can be hopeful for next season. There should be a lot of growth in some valuable positions. Let’s run through it:
Z - One of the freshmen, or a transfer TBD
X - Dalton Carnes | TBD
Y - DT Sheffield | Miles Coleman
H - Landon Sides | Wyatt Young
HB - Demashja Harris | Shane Porter | Sibley | McGill | TBD
LT - Braydon Nelson
LG - Johnny Dickson
C - Tyler Mercer
RG - TBD
RT - Desmond Magiya
TE - Brandon Young
QB - Morris | Mestemaker | Jimmerson?
(Here I’m assuming the new DC is running a 4-2-5)
SDE - Transfer? | TBD
Nose - Vailea? | Williams?
DT - Fatafehi Vailea | Jayden Williams?
Bandit - Breylon Charles? | Transfer | TBD
MLB - Chavez Brown
WLB - Ethan Wesloski
Star/Rover/Eagle - Jayven Anderson | JJ Jean-Louis
FS - Evan Jackson | Quinton Hammonds | BJ Allen
BS - Kollin Lewis | Gant | TBD
CB - Brian Nelson | X’Avion Brice
CB Taylor Starling |
I mean, you have to be a little excited right? The 77-new guys included a lot of young dudes. Early NSD added more youth, and some dudes for the defense and offensive line. Two must have areas.
It Isn’t Over, Though
There is a bowl game to be played. There have been some good teams in the last decade (2018!) but the most accomplished remains the 2013 squad that won a bowl game. A league title game appearance is something but you don’t put a trophy for second place anywhere. This squad can put a trophy someplace and call themselves “bowl champions” as Danny Mac put it. It is something.
Chandler Morris can break some records. The senior class can go out winners. In a league that has turned over half of the head coaches inside a year, getting to a bowl is a solid season even if the last half of the year was tough.
With the knowledge that a bowl can push the grade higher (and a blowout loss can push it lower) we can grade this season:
Verdict: C+
North Texas is bowling, but it is only a one-game improvement in the win column over last year. NT beat the teams it should have in the first half of the year, but then dropped a terrible game to ECU, were embarrassed by Tulane, and blew a great chance of upsetting Army. The loss to UTSA was also poor, even if the Memphis game was an exciting missed opportunity.
NT recruited heavily to fill spots in weak areas — DL, LB, Safety — but were hurt by injuries, suspension, and poor coaching. The injuries along the front five and in the backfield limited the offense late in the season, and Morris’ offensive magic had diminishing effectiveness as the opposition narrowed their focus on the only dangerous players.
GMG
You might say “hey that ECU stat line looks like the Tulsa one” and I will say that it does, except for the three scores. Also, ECU gashed us mostly in the second half, and then got big plays on play-action. These rushing stats are not everything but you can see they tell a lot of the story.
Again, most defense are very multiple with the fronts. You usually have a big end, a big Nose, a smaller nose-like guy, and a pass rusher. That pass rusher is an end in the four-down schemes, and is a “linebacker” in the 3-4 stuff. The 3-high is probably the most unusual in that you have the three down lineman and bringing more safeties.