2024: ECU Preview
...Or Get Someone Who Can
November 23・2:30pm・ESPN+・MGRN・Denton・DATCU (30,100)
I returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favor to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.
Ecclesiastes 9:11
A four-game losing streak is on our minds. A five-gamer is staring us in the face. As well as North Texas has played (Memphis, defense vs Army ) is as bad as they’ve played (Tulane, offense vs Army, UTSA) and so Eric Morris exercised his privilege as head coach and fired his defensive coordinator. It was a bold move, considering firing someone you hired on your first staff as FBS head coach means admitting you made a mistake. Much was made of Caponi’s salary, but that was a decision Morris made to balance out the idea of his football program. Morris is the offensive mastermind and Caponi would control the defense. It is something that coordinators do often. Call it delegating or what-have-you but it indicates a young head coach. The best coaches care very hard about all aspects of the game and while they may have one side they favor, they have their imprint on it all.
Morris did push for the change of system to the 3-4 midway through the season. It was useful, but in the two most important games it was sliced to bits — vs Memphis and Tulane. Army represented and outlier, and then finally in San Antonio the 3-high was lit up for 681 yards of offense.
After a year of poor defense with just the slightest hint of improvement Morris makes a change. Hidden in there was the poor offensive showing vs Tulane, Army, and this past week. When you are the head coach and offensive coordinator you don’t have to worry about firing yourself. Again, this is the privilege of the head coach.
Morris spoke of the nature of the job, said good things about Caponi, but also said “we know this is a results based business and if you can’t do you, we’ll get someone who can.”
Yes, that is the business. North Texas Football has not been doing it and it doesn’t matter so much how close or how far away they are from doing it as much as we see them not doing it.
This week more AAC head coaches were fired. Tom Herman was a shocking firing in Boca Raton, but a couple of losing seasons mixed with a loss to Temple and some hinting at looking for another gig means you get the axe early.
Eric Morris is facing an interim coach these next two weeks. He needs to win both to reach .500 for his career here at NT. It ain’t dire, but let’s just say no one on the staff should get too comfortable with their living situation.
The matchup:
Eric Morris 34-30 (six years), 10-12 (2nd year) 0-0 vs ECU
Blake Harrell 3-0 (first year interim), 3-0, 0-0 vs UNT
North Texas is hosting Senior Day. The honorees:
Jordan Brown, Roderick Brown, Blair Conwright, Terrell Dawkins, Jett Duncan, Alphie Guillory Jr., Jayden Hill, Landon Peterson, Jace Ruder, Jake Shipley, Jaylen Smith, Ridge Texada, Loronzo Thompson, Jenson Walker, and Damon Ward, Jr.
The advanced numbers slightly like ECU, but they did as well vs UTSA and that didn’t help things a bit. The game isn’t played on paper and the numbers all assume some constant. North Texas was a very explosive offense up until Tulane and since then Chandler Morris has been awful. I mentioned at halftime of the UTSA game that NT in the previous 12 possessions (full game vs Army and one half of UTSA) had 3 punts, 4 turnover on downs, one touchdown, one field goal, and 3 interceptions.
The QB was pressing vs Army and then doing something similar vs UTSA. In his defense, the play calling and the play execution have been shaky. Guys are not consistently getting off the line nor getting open, and when they do they do not always catch the ball.
Add to that the run game being inconsistent. Sure, breaking off three 40+ yard runs is fun and great, but mixing those around 1 yard losses is not great. Football is not baseball and the offense batting .220 with 3 home runs does not a good offense make. It means short fields for the defense and tired legs.
ECU comes into Denton on the strength of beating Temple, FAU, and Tulsa. Call it unimpressive if you want, but those three represent two of the NT wins. This group obliterated FAU and NT escaped. NT whooped Tulsa and ECU escaped on a short week. That’s the game. The transitive property of the game never holds.
The short-and-sweet version preview of ECU is that they can be dangerous offensively, and when the pass rush is on, dangerous on defense. They harassed UTSA’s offense into turnovers and sacks, but let Charlotte score 55 on them (49ers fired Poggi this week). Temple and Tulsa, two poor offenses, put up 30+.
The big change has been in QB Katin Houser. He’s unlocked some opportunities that Jake Garcia did not, and outside of some offensive line changes, it has been the same group.
Change Up From Normal Previews
Normally we do the “attacking” and “defending” thing but we’ll change it up here. The main thing is that Chandler Morris is in a funk and he needs to get out of it. He was staring down his guy vs Army, making bad decisions vs UTSA, and not moving smoothly from one read to another. The head coach blamed some of his own playcalling here and there, and we’ve blamed some of the routes, but the throws have been bad. Everyone is a little banged up and pain changes your decision making, sure. This is football, though. No one is feeling good anymore. It is November. There are aches and pains all over. That cannot mean you throw into triple coverage instead of taking the easy yards. That can’t mean you don’t stand tall and make a throw.
Overall the season play has been good, but when the squad has needed Morris to be great, he has been small. It is a tough request, but that’s the game. To be great you have to play great in important moments. Morris was awesome vs Memphis, but has been mediocre at best and awful at worst in the time since.
Defensively, do not expect too much different other than play calls. At this point in the season we will see that 3-4 scheme we saw from Wyoming to Tulane and most of the same calls there. The base looks with some occasional pressures? Yep. Might we see some more or less conservative calls on third down? Perhaps. Caponi liked to bring some pressures on third down — that’s not unusual in the grand scheme of things. The types of pressures Odom will call and who to bring is the difference we can look for.
The head coach asked for more 3rd down stops and more turnovers. You get the former by winning first and second down. You get the latter by disrupting the blocking schemes on all downs. You git the QB, you make him throw under duress. You gang tackle the ball carrier.
Eric Morris called the team too slow and too weak after last game. Presumably he knows that you can’t get faster and stronger in a week’s time, but he knows you can play faster. The defense simplifying the game plan and moving quicker is one way to do things. The downside of being simple is that you can be predictable. Let’s watch for that.
I’ve been of the mind that Caponi was limited by the youth on the squad, as the mistakes were from experience. He did a lot of dramatic stomping and things, and I do not think that is a good look. Sure, bud, we can see you are unhappy. The time to make those improvements is during the week when you have time to coach up the right reads and things. For that choice alone, I can see the rationale in making a change.
North Texas has two more scheduled games and a possible 8-win season if it all breaks right. It starts with a winnable game vs ECU, but as we said last week, even if the margin for error is larger than it was vs Tulane/Army, it does not mean you can make mistakes and no get punished. The offense needs to be crisper. That is on Chandler Morris. It is also on Eric Morris for putting his team in better positions. It is also incumbent upon the skill guys to do better. McGill was not hitting the holes hard and going north/south. Ward, Conwright, Sheffield were dropping balls. Wyatt Young was falling down on routes. Carnes hasn’t been open in like three weeks. Blocks have been missed. There are cracks all over. It isn’t on just one guy, even if it is mostly on one guy.
Eric Morris said he hopes the Mean Green faithful remember that we are a family and we will stick with the team even when they are down. Sure, yeah. The die-hards always do. the casuals will not. It is what it is. Another Senior Day with a sea of chairbacks starting back at them. That is the consequence of getting thumped by your rival.
Prediction:
I said 38-17 in the preseason. I will adjust that to 27-24. We’ll see a new-DC bounce. I don’t know if Chandler Morris will bounce back from his month-long slump, however. I think this squad can still get points. The home game and the normal week to rest will help.