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More Passing Thoughts

Today Greg posted his statistic predictions. Last year, his estimates were pretty close. I’m still more bullish than he is on the number of pass attempts we’ll have. My back-of-napkin math predicted something like

300 / 490, 3500 yards, 28 Tds, 9 Ints.

Looking at Littrell’s run pass calls at UNC means we need to account for the fact that Larry Fedora was always more about balance than any of the Air Raid types.

Pass / Run Attempts For Larry Fedora’s teams

Year Role Program Pass Attempts Per Game Run Att P/G Notes
2005 OC Okie St 29.3 39.3 Iffy QBs
2006 OC Okie St 24.7  40.2 The “balanced” era of OSU FB
2007 OC Okie St 29.7 45.5 Better QB (Zac Robinson) and still balanced, QB with 140 rushes
2008 HC SoMiss 35.2 40.8 Austin Davis was good. Still had balance in att. (40 rushes)
2009 HC SoMiss 30.1 39.4 Injuries hurt pass game
2010 HC SoMiss 36.2 43 Austin Davis back. Lots of runs including 145 by Davis
2011 HC SoMiss 34.9 39.5 Last year of Austin Davis
2012 HC UNC 36.8 38.1  Which was up from the prev. year. Same QB
2013 HC UNC 34.8 37.7 Two QBs
2014 HC UNC 39.2 38.2 Marquise Williams had 428 passes, and 193 rushes
2015 HC UNC 29.1 37.6 More rushes. Some of this is a function of blowouts
Total 32.4 40.4 Without Littrell

Seth Littrell P/R Att

Year Role Program Pass Attempts Per Game Run Att P/G Notes
2010 Co-OC Arizona 40.3 33.5 Up from previous year by 3 per game
2011 OC Arizona 48.1 27.6 Lots of losses
2012 OC Indiana 45 33.3 Zona hired Rich Rod and Seth moved here. Passes up 14 /game  
2013 OC Indiana 39.2 38.2 More of the same with QB issues
2014 – 2015 See Above
Total 43.2 33.2

We can apply the same logic here. Stoops’ teams threw the ball a lot. So did Wilsons’. I certainly think working under Fedora will influence the offense. Fedora has always been more of a spread-to-run kid of guy than the pure spread-to-pass that Leach is. However, I do not see Morris as the type of QB that will run 100 times a season. The occasional option is certainly on the table1, it just will not be a large part of the regular offense.

That said, we should note that Mike Stoops and Kevin Wilson were both direct Leach-Style Air Raid guys. Littrell hired Harrell, a Leach QB. I think we will pass a lot.

  1. Derek Thompson ran 64 times in 2013. 

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