Breakdown: Texas-San Antonio (UTSA)

Game Information

Time: October 31, 2015 6:00 pm CT

Location: Apogee Stadium, Denton TX

Line: UTSA -7

TV: American Sports Network

Radio: KHYI 95.3 FM KNTU 88.1 FM KGAF 1580 AM

Weather: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Team Information

UTSA

North Texas

North Texas		UTSA
National Rank	Category	National Rank
114	Scoring Offense	103
123	Scoring Defense	98
48	Rushing Offense	88
116	Rushing Defense	48
92	Passing Offense	95
118	Passing Defense	111
80	Total Offense	105
123	Total Defense	88
102	Yards Per Play	111
118	OPP Yards Per Play	97
116	Points Per Play	108
119	OPP Points Per Play	106
77	3rd Conversion	71
128	Opp 3rd Conversion	97
63	QB Sacked %	120
76	Def Sack %	113
115	TO Margin	83


North Texas Offense		UTSA Defense
Run %	Down	Run %
56%	1st Down	57%
52%	2nd Down	54%
36%	3rd Down	40%
North Texas Offense		UTSA Defense
Pass %	Down	Pass %
44%	1st Down	43%
48%	2nd Down	46%
64%	3rd Down	60%
North Texas Defense		UTSA Offense
Run %	Down	Run %
65%	1st Down	73%
57%	2nd Down	54%
45%	3rd Down	34%
North Texas Defense		UTSA Offense
Pass %	Down	Pass %
35%	1st Down	27%
43%	2nd Down	46%
55%	3rd Down	66%


North Texas Offense		UTSA Defense
Average	Down	Average
5.3	1st Down	5.6
5.4	2nd Down	6.5
4.3	3rd Down	6.6
North Texas Offense		UTSA Defense
Run	Down	Run
5.0	1st Down	4.2
7.8	2nd Down	4.5
1.2	3rd Down	3.4
North Texas Offense		UTSA Defense
Pass	Down	Pass
5.7	1st Down	7.5
3.7	2nd Down	9.0
6.0	3rd Down	8.7
North Texas Defense		UTSA Offense
Average	Down	Average
6.7	1st Down	4.7
8.3	2nd Down	4.4
6.9	3rd Down	5.1
North Texas Defense		UTSA Offense
Run	Down	Run
5.0	1st Down	4.0
7.5	2nd Down	3.3
5.1	3rd Down	2.8
North Texas Defense		UTSA Offense
Pass	Down	Pass
9.7	1st Down	6.6
9.4	2nd Down	5.8
8.5	3rd Down	6.2


North Texas Offense		UTSA Defense
	Down
109.58	1st Down	132.81
73.98	2nd Down	139.3
102.22	3rd Down	159.02
North Texas Defense		UTSA Offense
	Down
182.24	1st Down	111.5
179.86	2nd Down	104.8
168.33	3rd Down	125.8


NORTH TEXAS PASS DEFENSE	VS.	UTSA OFFENSE
	Edge
Why	North Texas held Marshall to under 200 yards passing last week, and showed signs of life. This week they get another young QB in Dalton Sturm. Sturm is being forced to fill in for the injured Bogenshutz. I expect Sturm to find some success in the passing game vs. North Texas. It won’t be a lot, but the secondary is still finding its way, and is young.
NORTH TEXAS RUN DEFENSE	VS.	UTSA RUN OFFENSE
	Edge
Why	Jarveon Williams is an explosive back, and he is going up against a North Texas that really hasn’t stopped anyone. That NT run defense showed signs of life last week against Marshall, but I’m not convinced yet that are getting better. Williams maybe too much to handle for the NT defense.

NORTH TEXAS DEFENSIVE LINE	VS.	UTSA OFFENSIVE LINE
	Edge
Why	The UTSA OL has been weak the past few weeks. A lot of that has to do with losing a few key guys to injury. The Roadrunners OL is getting healthy and that should help out this week as they go up against a weak NT DL. The Mean Green DL had its best game of the year against Marshall last week. It will be interesting to see if they can get any pressure on Sturm. I think this match-up is pretty even. UTSA will probably open up some nice running lanes, and NT will probably get multiple sacks and pressures on Sturm.
NORTH TEXAS PASS OFFENSE	VS.	UTSA PASS DEFENSE
	Edge
Why	DaMarcus Smith gets to face a UTSA pass defense that’s a little bit easier of a test than Marshall. Don’t get me wrong the UTSA pass defense is capable of making plays. They’ve got 9 ints in the past 3 games. That being said the roadrunners are still giving up close to 300 yards a game. I don’t think North Texas hits 300, but I do think Smith and his WRs will hit big plays.
NORTH TEXAS RUN OFFENSE	VS.	UTSA RUN DEFENSE
	Edge
Why	UTSA’s run defense is supposedly good, but a closer look at the numbers says different. They’ve only really shut down 2 teams UTEP & LA Tech. It has to be said that both UTEP & Tech were without their starting RBs in those games. Outside of those games UTSA hasn’t really stopped anyone. North Texas has proved they can run on any FBS teams. North Texas put up 183 yards rushing against the #3 rush defense in the country, Iowa. No other team has rushed for 100 yards against Iowa this year. I expect North Texas to find plenty of success against UTSA. Wilson is too much to handle, now that defenses have to account for Smith.
NORTH TEXAS OFFENSIVE LINE	VS.	UTSA DEFENSIVE LINE
	Edge
Why	The North Texas OL is finally starting to gel. They are showing that they can run block very well. UTSA has a pretty stout DL that should provide a good challenge. Much like the other OL vs DL match-up I think this one is very evenly matched. I give NT a slight edge, because I think they are playing at higher level since the Portland St. debacle.
NORTH TEXAS SPECIAL TEAMS	VS.	UTSA SPECIAL TEAMS
	Edge
Why	UTSA has a struggling kicker and an average punter. North Texas has a weapon in Eric Keena and a solid kicker in Trevor Moore. Edge has to go to NT.


North Texas		UTSA
Player/Overall Rating	Position	Player/Overall Rating
DaMarcus Smith - 73	QB vs QB	Dalton Sturm - 67
Jeffery Wilison - 78	RB vs RB	Jarveon Williams - 76
Carlos Harris - 81	WR vs CB	Bennett Okotcha - 81
Chad Davis - 70	CB vs WR	Kerry Thomas Jr. - 67
James Gray - 74	S vs TE	David Morgan II - 79


North Texas Total Offense	398 Yards
North Texas Pass Offense	223 Yards
North Texas Run Offense	175 Yards
UTSA Total Offense	428 Yards
UTSA Pass Offense	230 Yards
UTSA Run Offense	198 Yards
	Computer Final Score
UTSA	31
North Texas	25

GAME PLAN FOR VICTORY

How UTSA will Win

UTSA will win if they are able to establish Jarveon Williams early. That will take a ton of pressure off Sturm. On the other side of the ball the roadrunners need to take away Wilson. Keeping him in check will get DaMarcus Smith to force plays. UTSA has to keep Sturm upright too. He faced way to much pressure from Southern Miss. He really wasnt able to sit back and see what the defense was giving him.

How North Texas will Win

The game plan is very similar for North Texas. Stop the run and force Sturm to beat you. Make sure you bring lots of blitzes and mix coverages to confuse the QB. All the pressure in this game is on UTSA. North Texas is playing with house money and should continue to be very aggressive.