Breakdown: Texas-San Antonio (UTSA)

Game Information

Time: October 31, 2015 6:00 pm CT

Location: Apogee Stadium, Denton TX

Line: UTSA -7

TV: American Sports Network

Radio: KHYI 95.3 FM KNTU 88.1 FM KGAF 1580 AM

Weather: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.


Team Information

UTSA

North Texas


North Texas
 
UTSA
National Rank
Category
National Rank
114
Scoring Offense
103
123
Scoring Defense
98
48
Rushing Offense
88
116
Rushing Defense
48
92
Passing Offense
95
118
Passing Defense
111
80
Total Offense
105
123
Total Defense
88
102
Yards Per Play
111
118
OPP Yards Per Play
97
116
Points Per Play
108
119
OPP Points Per Play
106
77
3rd Conversion
71
128
Opp 3rd Conversion
97
63
QB Sacked %
120
76
Def Sack %
113
115
TO Margin
83
Play Call Percentages
North Texas Offense
UTSA Defense
Run %
Down
Run %
56%

1st Down
57%

52%

2nd Down
54%

36%

3rd Down
40%

North Texas Offense
UTSA Defense
Pass %
Down
Pass %
44%

1st Down
43%

48%

2nd Down
46%

64%

3rd Down
60%

North Texas Defense
UTSA Offense
Run %
Down
Run %
65%

1st Down
73%

57%

2nd Down
54%

45%

3rd Down
34%

North Texas Defense
UTSA Offense
Pass %
Down
Pass %
35%

1st Down
27%

43%

2nd Down
46%
55%

3rd Down
66%


Yards Per Play
North Texas Offense
UTSA Defense
Average
Down
Average
5.3
1st Down
5.6
5.4
2nd Down
6.5
4.3
3rd Down
6.6
North Texas Offense
UTSA Defense
Run
Down
Run
5.0
1st Down
4.2
7.8
2nd Down
4.5
1.2
3rd Down
3.4
North Texas Offense
UTSA Defense
Pass
Down
Pass
5.7
1st Down
7.5
3.7
2nd Down
9.0
6.0
3rd Down
8.7
North Texas Defense
UTSA Offense
Average
Down
Average
6.7
1st Down
4.7
8.3
2nd Down
4.4
6.9
3rd Down
5.1
North Texas Defense
UTSA Offense
Run
Down
Run
5.0
1st Down
4.0
7.5
2nd Down
3.3
5.1
3rd Down
2.8
North Texas Defense
UTSA Offense
Pass
Down
Pass
9.7
1st Down
6.6
9.4
2nd Down
5.8
8.5
3rd Down
6.2
QB Rating By Down
North Texas Offense
UTSA Defense
Down
109.58
1st Down
132.81
73.98
2nd Down
139.3
102.22
3rd Down
159.02
North Texas Defense
UTSA Offense
Down
182.24
1st Down
111.5
179.86
2nd Down
104.8
168.33
3rd Down
125.8
Inside the Matchups
NORTH TEXAS PASS DEFENSE
VS.
UTSA OFFENSE
Edge
Symbol 2
Why
North Texas held Marshall to under 200 yards passing last week, and showed signs of life. This week they get another young QB in Dalton Sturm. Sturm is being forced to fill in for the injured Bogenshutz. I expect Sturm to find some success in the passing game vs. North Texas. It won’t be a lot, but the secondary is still finding its way, and is young.
NORTH TEXAS RUN DEFENSE
VS.
UTSA RUN OFFENSE
Edge
Symbol 2
Why
Jarveon Williams is an explosive back, and he is going up against a North Texas that really hasn’t stopped anyone. That NT run defense showed signs of life last week against Marshall, but I’m not convinced yet that are getting better. Williams maybe too much to handle for the NT defense.
NORTH TEXAS DEFENSIVE LINE
VS.
UTSA OFFENSIVE LINE
Edge
Symbol 2
Why
The UTSA OL has been weak the past few weeks. A lot of that has to do with losing a few key guys to injury. The Roadrunners OL is getting healthy and that should help out this week as they go up against a weak NT DL. The Mean Green DL had its best game of the year against Marshall last week. It will be interesting to see if they can get any pressure on Sturm. I think this match-up is pretty even. UTSA will probably open up some nice running lanes, and NT will probably get multiple sacks and pressures on Sturm.
NORTH TEXAS PASS OFFENSE
VS.
UTSA PASS DEFENSE
Symbol 2
Edge
Why
DaMarcus Smith gets to face a UTSA pass defense that’s a little bit easier of a test than Marshall. Don’t get me wrong the UTSA pass defense is capable of making plays. They’ve got 9 ints in the past 3 games. That being said the roadrunners are still giving up close to 300 yards a game. I don’t think North Texas hits 300, but I do think Smith and his WRs will hit big plays.
NORTH TEXAS RUN OFFENSE
VS.
UTSA RUN DEFENSE
Symbol 2
Edge
Why
UTSA’s run defense is supposedly good, but a closer look at the numbers says different. They’ve only really shut down 2 teams UTEP & LA Tech. It has to be said that both UTEP & Tech were without their starting RBs in those games. Outside of those games UTSA hasn’t really stopped anyone. North Texas has proved they can run on any FBS teams. North Texas put up 183 yards rushing against the #3 rush defense in the country, Iowa. No other team has rushed for 100 yards against Iowa this year. I expect North Texas to find plenty of success against UTSA. Wilson is too much to handle, now that defenses have to account for Smith.
NORTH TEXAS OFFENSIVE LINE
VS.
UTSA DEFENSIVE LINE
Symbol 2
Edge
Why
The North Texas OL is finally starting to gel. They are showing that they can run block very well. UTSA has a pretty stout DL that should provide a good challenge. Much like the other OL vs DL match-up I think this one is very evenly matched. I give NT a slight edge, because I think they are playing at higher level since the Portland St. debacle.
NORTH TEXAS SPECIAL TEAMS
VS.
UTSA SPECIAL TEAMS
Symbol 2
Edge
Why
UTSA has a struggling kicker and an average punter. North Texas has a weapon in Eric Keena and a solid kicker in Trevor Moore. Edge has to go to NT.
Player Ratings
North Texas
UTSA
Player/Overall Rating
Position
Player/Overall Rating
DaMarcus Smith - 73
QB vs QB
Dalton Sturm - 67
Jeffery Wilison - 78
RB vs RB
Jarveon Williams - 76
Carlos Harris - 81
WR vs CB
Bennett Okotcha - 81
Chad Davis - 70
CB vs WR
Kerry Thomas Jr. - 67
James Gray - 74
S vs TE
David Morgan II - 79
Simulated Stats
North Texas Total Offense398 Yards
North Texas Pass Offense223 Yards
North Texas Run Offense175 Yards
UTSA Total Offense428 Yards
UTSA Pass Offense230 Yards
UTSA Run Offense198 Yards
Computer Final Score
UTSA31
North Texas25

GAME PLAN FOR VICTORY 

How UTSA will Win

UTSA will win if they are able to establish Jarveon Williams early. That will take a ton of pressure off Sturm. On the other side of the ball the roadrunners need to take away Wilson. Keeping him in check will get DaMarcus Smith to force plays. UTSA has to keep Sturm upright too. He faced way to much pressure from Southern Miss. He really wasnt able to sit back and see what the defense was giving him.

How North Texas will Win

The game plan is very similar for North Texas. Stop the run and force Sturm to beat you. Make sure you bring lots of blitzes and mix coverages to confuse the QB.  All the pressure in this game is on UTSA. North Texas is playing with house money and should continue to be very aggressive.

 


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