UTSA Breakdown 2014

This is another mini-breakdown ahead of the UTSA game.

Wednesday I threw out some stats about where the offense ranks in recent UNT history. It isn’t pretty. Because of poor quarterback and line play, this offense is on pace to rank as the worst since 2008. That is unless they pile up something like 627 yards. That is unlikely to happen against this UTSA squad with one of the conference’s best defenses.

Here are North Texas’s road statistics splits with UTSA’s home splits.

Offensive Comparison:

Here are the team’s defensive splits

Defensive Comparison

At first glance you might think to yourself “Well, we average a decent amount (18) on the road compared to UTSA’s average at home (9.3!!) so we should be good.” Well we’ve allowed each opponent to score more than their average. Thanks to our terrible defense on the road we’ve boosted each team’s average by about a point. We’ve also scored significantly less than each opponent allows in each game.

Conversely, UTSA has held each opponent to less than their average with the notable exception of UTEP, who came in to the Alamodome and dominated all facets.

Statistically we are like UTSA’s opponent Southern Miss. They were similarly bad on offense — they averaged 19.5 excluding UTSA — and similarly porous on defense — they allowed 36.8 per game also excluding UTSA. UTSA – Southern Miss finished 12-10.

The good news is that we haven’t faced an offense¹ this bad since Texas to open the year. Interesting that we will end the year just an hour or so south of where we began it. Texas averaged 21.2 outside of the 38 they dropped on NT. UTSA is averaging 15.5 in all games, 12 at home and just 9.3 at home in conference play.

North Texas will likely not be able to run against this Runner defense. UTSA is great at stopping the run and we haven’t been able to muster more than 163 yards on the road all year. They are holding teams to a paltry 2.84 ypc, while we average a woeful 2.73 ypc on the road in conference.