Today Greg posted his statistic predictions. Last year, his estimates were pretty close. I’m still more bullish than he is on the number of pass attempts we’ll have. My back-of-napkin math predicted something like
300 / 490, 3500 yards, 28 Tds, 9 Ints.
Looking at Littrell’s run pass calls at UNC means we need to account for the fact that Larry Fedora was always more about balance than any of the Air Raid types.
Pass / Run Attempts For Larry Fedora’s teams
Year | Role | Program | Pass Attempts Per Game | Run Att P/G | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | OC | Okie St | 29.3 | 39.3 | Iffy QBs |
2006 | OC | Okie St | 24.7 | 40.2 | The “balanced” era of OSU FB |
2007 | OC | Okie St | 29.7 | 45.5 | Better QB (Zac Robinson) and still balanced, QB with 140 rushes |
2008 | HC | SoMiss | 35.2 | 40.8 | Austin Davis was good. Still had balance in att. (40 rushes) |
2009 | HC | SoMiss | 30.1 | 39.4 | Injuries hurt pass game |
2010 | HC | SoMiss | 36.2 | 43 | Austin Davis back. Lots of runs including 145 by Davis |
2011 | HC | SoMiss | 34.9 | 39.5 | Last year of Austin Davis |
2012 | HC | UNC | 36.8 | 38.1 | Which was up from the prev. year. Same QB |
2013 | HC | UNC | 34.8 | 37.7 | Two QBs |
2014 | HC | UNC | 39.2 | 38.2 | Marquise Williams had 428 passes, and 193 rushes |
2015 | HC | UNC | 29.1 | 37.6 | More rushes. Some of this is a function of blowouts |
Total | 32.4 | 40.4 | Without Littrell |
Seth Littrell P/R Att
Year | Role | Program | Pass Attempts Per Game | Run Att P/G | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | Co-OC | Arizona | 40.3 | 33.5 | Up from previous year by 3 per game |
2011 | OC | Arizona | 48.1 | 27.6 | Lots of losses |
2012 | OC | Indiana | 45 | 33.3 | Zona hired Rich Rod and Seth moved here. Passes up 14 /game |
2013 | OC | Indiana | 39.2 | 38.2 | More of the same with QB issues |
2014 – 2015 | See Above | ||||
Total | 43.2 | 33.2 |
We can apply the same logic here. Stoops’ teams threw the ball a lot. So did Wilsons’. I certainly think working under Fedora will influence the offense. Fedora has always been more of a spread-to-run kid of guy than the pure spread-to-pass that Leach is. However, I do not see Morris as the type of QB that will run 100 times a season. The occasional option is certainly on the table1, it just will not be a large part of the regular offense.
That said, we should note that Mike Stoops and Kevin Wilson were both direct Leach-Style Air Raid guys. Littrell hired Harrell, a Leach QB. I think we will pass a lot.
- Derek Thompson ran 64 times in 2013. ↩
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